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[ShockingAlberto]

For discussion:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php

We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?

Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!

Hm. It seems reasonable but totally unverifiable.

Like your article says, we'll never know for sure, but a plain-faced reading of the facts isn't good in either scenario. Even if this were true, I doubt February will be much better since we're further from launch with still no new software, which would probably kill sales pretty hard.

 

[metalslimer]

For discussion:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php

We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?

Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!

But wait maybe I'm confused but if a large part of that 100k were people looking to abuse the returns system then they probably weren't really interested in owning a Wii U for the long haul. So if those people abusing the system exited the Wii U buying market wouldn't we just see a return back down to around 50k or below and not 80k? Becuase doesn't an 80k February assume that the people were doing the returns will now actually buy the system and hold on to it?

Edit: As SA says though, either way it doesn't show a very good sign of interest in the system because even if it was 100k that was considered to be on the bad end of the spectrum of Wii U sales.

 

[borius]

Ps3 didn't sell bad compared to 360 this time. I'm curious about 3ds data

 

[sangreal]

For discussion:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php

We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?

Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!

That's an interesting theory, but it isn't it somewhat verifiable by asking NPD if they deduct returns (or about the WiiU returns specifically)?

But wait maybe I'm confused but if a large part of that 100k were people looking to abuse the returns system then they probably weren't really interested in owning a Wii U for the long haul. So if those people abusing the system exited the Wii U buying market wouldn't we just see a return back down to around 50k or below and not 80k? Becuase doesn't an 80k February assume that the people were doing the returns will now actually buy the system and hold on to it?

Edit: As SA says though, either way it doesn't show a very good sign of interest in the system because even if it was 100k that was considered to be on the bad end of the spectrum of Wii U sales.

They're not saying the returns were part of the 100k. They're saying that they bought them in December to sell during the holidays and returned them in January. At least that was my understanding

 

[LOCK]

For discussion:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php

We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?

Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!

So either way, NPD can be considered accurate. NPD was not as accurate as many people on this forum would think in the past, but I know they have improved. Unless a competing service comes along that would add some clarity to game sales, this is always going to be the case.

February is going to offer us a direction in the sales future for the Wii U. It is a new system that has a higher price tag with no new games released and a shorter sales period. Everything points to the Wii U doing worse in Feb. compared to Jan. (ignoring tax season). If its weekly sales increase then that bodes well for Nintendo.

 

[metalslimer]

They're not saying the returns were part of the 100k. They're saying that they bought them in December to sell during the holidays and returned them in January. At least that was my understanding

Ah I see. Although that retroactively makes the December numbers seem even worse. I guess we'll see in February because there is nothing for Wii U that would increased sales.

 

[darkstar0155]

Ah I see. Although that retroactively makes the December numbers seem even worse. I guess we'll see in February because there is nothing for Wii U that would increased sales.

this all the way. Although i thought Dec. sales were still good for a launch?

 

[Mpl90]

About tax season: when did it start this year? Compared to other years?

 

[Jaded Alyx]

For discussion:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php

We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?

Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!

Is this not worthy of a thread? Not so much because of this specific case (if true) but more so because I don't think people ever consider that NPD numbers could be affected by returns.

 

[LOCK]

About tax season: when did it start this year? Compared to other years?

Usually begins in Feb. but March is the biggest month, with some spillover to April. It is why Easter is a big retailer holiday (clothes, candy, etc.), and why so many games get released in March.

March gets tax money and companies want to ship games out to retailers to make their Fiscal Year cutoffs.

 

[bigtroyjon]

For discussion:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php

We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?

Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!

With 30 day return policies, most returns should have taken place in December as prices collapsed shortly after launch.

 

[MikeE21286]

For discussion:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php

We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?

Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!

That's interesting.

I honestly think this could very well have some legs for a couple reasons:

1. I know a lot of people were trying to aim at the resale market with the WiiU --- the first new hardware in 7 years.

2. The WiiU released on November 18th, and while the normal return policy is within 30 days for many/most retailers (especially on video game hardware and software) this may have allowed customers to return their consoles in January, utilizing extended Holiday Returns Policies that most large retailers employ. This would allow scalpers to return their items at the last possible point, well after the traditional 30-day return period.

3. Most people who would have bought their console to resell, would have noticed that the WiiU resell market was IMMEDIATELY soft. There were no markups to be found. Faced with this dilemma of either returning the item to the store for no profit or hanging onto it in the hopes to resell closer to Christmas (and utilize the extended holiday return period), most scalpers would have chosen to wait and see if re-sale demand increased closer to Christmas.

On a more personal note, I returned 2 extra units myself that I was planning on re-selling. However I returned mine near the end of December (20th or so) after the resale market collapsed

 

[pieatorium]

this all the way. Although i thought Dec. sales were still good for a launch?

They weren't bad for a launch but they were bad for a follow up to the November sales. You usually see a jump from nov to dec so the fairly flat result for WiiU showed lack of momentum.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

For discussion:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php

We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?

Also thanks Mpl90. Will put into spreadsheet later!

Count me as a +1 here. Bought the system at launch to resell then saw the total lack of demand and returned the unit for a full refund.

2. The WiiU released on November 18th, and while the normal return policy is within 30 days for many/most retailers (especially on video game hardware and software) this may have allowed customers to return their consoles in January, well after the traditional 30-day return period

I returned mine to EB games and because it was the holidays they gave until until January 15th to return the unit. That was normal business practice for that time of year.

 

[Effect]

Interesting theory and as said it doesn't make the sales numbers overall great or even good. However that would mean they were better then thought at least. Selling 100K or closer to it is better then 57K. The reseller market clearly wasn't there and that was clear from the start (there was an entire thread here on gaf about it) and the beginning or middle of January is where people would return systems they couldn't sell. No sense keeping them longer.

I didn't know that NPD took into account returns though. Perhaps they normally don't but when the returns are in such high numbers, which they would be right after a launch if they couldn't be sold, they are counted. Or retailers themselves take them into account and just report what the difference was in the end. After all these would be completely unopened returns that could go back right on the self.

 

[darkstar0155]

They weren't bad for a launch but they were bad for a follow up to the November sales. You usually see a jump from nov to dec so the fairly flat result for WiiU showed lack of momentum.

ok, thats what i thought too.

 

[MikeE21286]

Count me as a +1 here. Bought the system at launch to resell then saw the total lack of demand and returned the unit for a full refund.



I returned mine to EB games and because it was the holidays they gave until until January 15th to return the unit. That was normal business practice for that time of year.

Yep, exactly. I had to edit my statement as I forgot to finish my thought

 

[jcm]

With 30 day return policies, most returns should have taken place in December as prices collapsed shortly after launch.

I think a lot of them extend the return policy for christmas, so that people can return gifts. That said, this whole issue smacks of desperation spin to me. Lots of systems (and other items) get returned in January.

 

[BurnOutBrighter]

Madden and FIFA selling more on Vita than Wii U is not encouraging at all.

It's encouraging for the Vita!

 

[Effect]

I think a lot of them extend the return policy for christmas, so that people can return gifts. That said, this whole issue smacks of desperation spin to me. Lots of systems (and other items) get returned in January.

True but after what happen with the Wii I wouldn't doubt a LOT more people would have wanted to get in on the ground floor this time around only for history not to repeat itself.

There still are no must buy games. There is still no advertising, etc. It doesn't make the situation better. People still expected things to be bad. Perhaps this helps explain why the numbers were worse then the bad numbers people were originally expecting.

 

[Kenaras]

As the article says, February numbers should clear it up. Since there's no notable new software, an increase in sales for February should be attributed to a lack of returns. If returns didn't actually play a significant role, then February sales could be as low as 40k.

 

[prag16]

As the article says, February numbers should clear it up. Since there's no notable new software, an increase in sales for February should be attributed to a lack of returns. If returns didn't actually play a significant role, then February sales could be as low as 40k.

This. If we see 60-90k for February, this theory probably has merit.

If see 40-50k for February, this theory probably was garbage.

 

[Nirolak]

I think a lot of them extend the return policy for christmas, so that people can return gifts. That said, this whole issue smacks of desperation spin to me. Lots of systems (and other items) get returned in January.

Well, I mean, even if it's true, it's pretty horrid if 50K+ people are returning your system because they don't want it, so it's not really a positive either way.

 

[Shaanyboi]

As the article says, February numbers should clear it up. Since there's no notable new software, an increase in sales for February should be attributed to a lack of returns. If returns didn't actually play a significant role, then February sales could be as low as 40k.

It'll be interesting to see a month with some actual software released for the platform. March will be a better gauge perhaps for the platform's future?

 

[Effect]

Next week should be interesting. We'll indeed know for sure. I do wonder what it would have looked like as well had Rayman not been delayed the way it was. I still hold it being the only demo in kiosk for so long would have had an impact. Anyone know if it's been replaced?

 

[prag16]

Well, I mean, even if it's true, it's pretty horrid if 50K+ people are returning your system because they don't want it, so it's not really a positive either way.

If they're all scalpers who were never interested in the first place, or had bought multiple systems and already owned one, how is it a negative? It doesn't change total sales, but it does make them less frontloaded, meaning the precipitous dropoff isn't quite as precipitous.

Not that it's great news or even good news (if true). Just "not quite as horrible" news. xD

 

[darkside31337]

Well, I mean, even if it's true, it's pretty horrid if 50K+ people are returning your system because they don't want it, so it's not really a positive either way.

Yeah the one thing I don't understand about the Gamasutra piece is why hes assuming its mainly resellers returning the unit.

Could just be a lot of folks who got one for Christmas and have zero interest in it. I bought one for my younger cousin and they ended up returning the thing after a week.

 

[Version 3.0]

It's an interesting point. I can certainly say with confidence that launch purchases for the specific purpose of re-selling have been climbing with every console launch. This story actually makes me a little sad, because on a personal level, it's frustrating how many "scalpers" are in line ahead of me every launch, and it was kind of nice to think they were getting burned for once.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

Well, I mean, even if it's true, it's pretty horrid if 50K+ people are returning your system because they don't want it, so it's not really a positive either way.

When I returned my unit, it wasn't because I bought it and didn't want it... I didn't really want it at launch anyway. I just wanted to make a quick profit off it. So they didn't lose a sale from me cause I wouldn't have bought one anyway.

I'm waiting on some more games and a price drop.

 

[Wickerbasket]

When I returned my unit, it wasn't because I bought it and didn't want it... I didn't really want it at launch anyway. I just wanted to make a quick profit off it. So they didn't lose a sale from me cause I wouldn't have bought one anyway.

I'm waiting on some more games and a price drop.

So what you're saying is, that you returned it because you didn't want to keep it.

This news doesn't really affect things either way. At the end of the day there's still nearly no interest within the public in the system.

Next months numbers should give us an idea of how it's going to continue to sell.

 

[OldJadedGamer]

So what you're saying is, that you returned it because you didn't want to keep it.

This news doesn't really affect things either way. At the end of the day there's still nearly no interest within the public in the system.

Next months numbers should give us an idea of how it's going to continue to sell.

What I'm saying is that I didn't want it to begin with.

 

[TreasureHunterG]

Nintendo relied heavily on casual stuff for the Wii U release. They failed.

I hope they get the message and realize this casual focused direction have lost it's strenght and they need to actually focus on the core market.

 

[jvm]

Is this not worthy of a thread? Not so much because of this specific case (if true) but more so because I don't think people ever consider that NPD numbers could be affected by returns.

I have become more conservative about starting threads, so I don't anymore. I do think it's worth a discussion, but whether that should involve the wider gaming side of GAF or just the Sales-Age hardcore in here, I am not able to say.

 

[Jaded Alyx]

I have become more conservative about starting threads, so I don't anymore. I do think it's worth a discussion, but whether that should involve the wider gaming side of GAF or just the Sales-Age hardcore in here, I am not able to say.

Fair enough.

 

[Wickerbasket]

What I'm saying is that I didn't want it to begin with.

I'm sure a lot of people received the Wii U for xmas when they didn't want it, hence the returns.

What I'm saying though, is that the lack of interest doesn't bode well for the Wii U.

 

[TheDrowningMan]

So what you're saying is, that you returned it because you didn't want to keep it.

This news doesn't really affect things either way. At the end of the day there's still nearly no interest within the public in the system.

Next months numbers should give us an idea of how it's going to continue to sell.

100k in January for a system as softly launched as this wouldn't be horrible, regardless of whether that means December's total can have 40k lopped off of it. It would change the picture somewhat, but either way, I don't think it's doomed or even in great peril. I can see Nintendo doing pretty well come the end of 2013.

I think February would need to be well above 50k there to be any credibility in the story though. If it literally sold through 55k in January, I see short term pain and a miserable ceiling of 40k for this reporting period.

 

[Shaanyboi]

Nintendo relied heavily on casual stuff for the Wii U release. They failed.

I hope they get the message and realize this casual focused direction have lost it's strenght and they need to actually focus on the core market.

Do you mean NINTENDO'S core market, or the rest of the core market? Not to say there isn't overlap in people that enjoy both, but the rest of the core market will obviously be getting either the next-gen platforms or be running with a PC. Attempting some kind of parity between them and the PS4/Durango's release calendar can't be a realistic move for them. It sure as hell didn't work out on the Gamecube, and that was a technically comparable console.

I can see your argument if you mean that Nintendo needs to push their IPs hard, though. Like "here are your Nintendo-ass Nintendo games. A great charming awesome Zelda, a brilliant 3D Mario, a badass creepy Metroid."

 

[donny2112]

For discussion:

http://gamasutra.com/view/news/187605/A_theory_behind_Januarys_weak_Wii_U_sales.php

We're WiiU sales possibly over 100K in January?

Read it. Good article. Deserves a thread, if for no other reason than that I didn't ever take that into consideration before for January sales. Remember how we've always sort of scratched our heads as to why February hardware is a bump over January, when it makes more logical sense that January would still be coming off a December effect (e.g. gift cards, didn't get the system they want so buy it themselves)? Maybe this plays into why February tends to have a bump over January. Maybe January was being pushed down from returns by people who didn't get the system they wanted in December. This is revelatory, regardless of the Wii U implications, in my opinion.

Thank you for posting it!

About tax season: when did it start this year? Compared to other years?

It was held up some this year due to the changes in the tax rules, but not sure by how much. Maybe a couple of weeks?

Is this not worthy of a thread? Not so much because of this specific case (if true) but more so because I don't think people ever consider that NPD numbers could be affected by returns.

Yes, exactly.

With 30 day return policies, most returns should have taken place in December as prices collapsed shortly after launch.

Many places have holiday return policies to allow Christmas gifts to be returned, even without receipt. Some places (think Best Buy was one?) even advertised that through mid-January, I think.

 

[pieatorium]

100k in January for a system as softly launched as this wouldn't be horrible

It would still be a horrible number just not as horrible

 

[TheDrowningMan]

Do you mean NINTENDO'S core market, or the rest of the core market? Not to say there isn't overlap in people that enjoy both, but the rest of the core market will obviously be getting either the next-gen platforms or be running with a PC. Attempting some kind of parity between them and the PS4/Durango's release calendar can't be a realistic move for them. It sure as hell didn't work out on the Gamecube, and that was a technically comparable console.

I can see your argument if you mean that Nintendo needs to push their IPs hard, though. Like "here are your Nintendo-ass Nintendo games. A great charming awesome Zelda, a brilliant 3D Mario, a badass creepy Metroid."

Eh, I wouldn't be entirely surprised to see business pick up among the 'casual core' if brand awareness increases exponentially and Sony / MS decide the cut their existing consoles' legs off at the knees while a price-cut Wii U continues to get lower-end versions of the usual suspects.

It's really all about the brew of brand + price + software. There were an awful lot of multi- format of games that offered little reason to be played in their janky PS2 forms, but people weren't interested in migrating to Xbox (or, to a lesser extent, GameCube) and I don't think they would have done if GTA had release parity.

Note that I'm not saying there's going to be a mass-exodus of CoD and sports gamers to Nintendo, but it's a fluid market and a quirky generation, so I'm not convinced there's going to be astonishing demand for the new machines at launch. It would, of course, be very foolish for Sony / MS to attempt to nudge people away from consoles that really didn't have great traction and instead flourished over an extended period of time.

 

[chubigans]

That is really interesting JVM. I could make a new thread if you don't want to, but I think it's very much worth a new one. Never heard of that theory!

 

[TheDrowningMan]

It would still be a horrible number just not as horrible

I would say "decidedly sub-par" given the circumstances. It's clear to me that Nintendo never planned to give the thing a big push out of the gate. Their mistake, I suspect, was in believing that five million would by the console without one.

 

[pieatorium]

I would say "decidedly sub-par" given the circumstances. It's clear to me that Nintendo never planned to give the thing a big push out of the gate. Their mistake, I suspect, was in believing that five million would by the console without one.

So you are saying they committed fraud by lying to their shareholders in predicting 5.5 million sales by march?

 

[ascii42]

So you are saying they committed fraud by lying to their shareholders in predicting 5.5 million sales by march?

I think he's saying that Nintendo pulled a Sony and thought that millions would buy the system without any games.

 

[Plinko]

I don't get the Wii U sales thing being spun as a good thing--if most of those were bought and returned by re-sellers, that doesn't really help anything.

 

[TheDrowningMan]

So you are saying they committed fraud by lying to their shareholders in predicting 5.5 million sales by march?

No, where did I say anything that could reasonably be construed as an accusation of fraud? They believed that many units would essentially sell themselves. I seem to recall Iwata or maybe Reggie saying something to that effect prior to launch, in fact.

 

[InsaneZero]

So you are saying they committed fraud by lying to their shareholders in predicting 5.5 million sales by march?

Fraud is when you make up numbers in your results sheet to make your company look better than it really is. Nintendo's problem is that they have set their expectations so high that they look worse when they don't meet it.

 

[CrunchinJelly]

I don't get the Wii U sales thing being spun as a good thing--if most of those were bought and returned by re-sellers, that doesn't really help anything.

Completely agree. It's spin.

 

[pieatorium]

I don't get the Wii U sales thing being spun as a good thing--if most of those were bought and returned by re-sellers, that doesn't really help anything.

If it was 100k january and not 60k then the weekly sales would be higher which would give a better outlook for the next month.

 

[shadowsdarknes]

If it was 100k january and not 60k then the weekly sales would be higher which would give a better outlook for the next month.

But that 100k was artificially high as they were trying to be sold on Ebay, but they weren't selling.

The legit number is 57k for a 5 week period.