I think what really stuck out was Drakengard 3.
Yoichi Wada really liked Nier, so I feel that was definitely an executive pet project. Yoko Taro wasn't hired on for any additional projects after that came out.
There are more than one deviation, which invalidate the idea SQEX is greenlighting only games with a huge potential. For example, Chaos Ring III (the IP was already declining and the F2P experiment didn't really succeed) and its PSV version; Bravely Default (new IP, successor of a 200k game) and Bravely Second; The World Ends with You: Solo Remix; Deadman's Cross; Melpharia March; Dragon Quest X Online; and let's pretend that its Western output does not follow this "rule"
Well, you're mixing a few things here.
1.) Bravely Default to me was their planned successor to FF remakes on DS. It was originally Final Fantasy 4WoL2, the first of which was made by the people who did the remakes and is a call back to the era of FF they were remaking. To me this was them hoping to get a million plus per entry series out the door,
and they did. I don't think they see that same kind of potential in Final Fantasy Tactics Advance, as otherwise they'd presumably be making it.
2.) Chaos Rings 3 strikes me as a market test for the idea of releasing a retail product on both handhelds and mobile and seeing if they can accumulate total sales that are attractive. Their huge shipment versus what the game sold suggests that they had grander expectations than they reached. I would not be surprised if they never release another pay-for Chaos Rings title.
3.) The World Ends with You: Solo Remix feels like a title they were using to help promote a future entry in the TWEWY series, and the sequel teaser at the end of the game suggests they planned to do just that. Similarly they put TWEWY characters in KH3D, released a remastered music album, and launched a second social game you left out. Toward the end of only focusing on bigger projects, TWEWY seems to have since died judging by the utter silence on this front.
4.) Deadman's Cross and Melpharia March were definitely meant to be big earners. They were going after the mobage "card" game audience and the Plants vs. Zombies audience respectively. Being failed products doesn't make them not fit the strategy. Square Enix has since simply refocused their efforts on other f2p titles.
5.) Dragon Quest X Online is absolutely part of their strategy. They list it as major HD games, high profit margin MMOs, and high profit margin smartphone games (which are increasingly and now primarily f2p titles). I'm not even remotely sure what you're trying to get at with this one. Final Fantasy XI, despite being one of the worst selling FF's ever,
was one of the most profitable for a long time (this was a 2012 article) and may still be unless FFXIV has overtaken it.
I'll address the "FF saturation" thing in a few hours, but I have to do some work in the meantime.
