• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

Media Create Sales: Week 40, 2014 (Sep 29 - Oct 05)

L Thammy

Member
I agree with pretty much everything you said. My take is L5 is going for short-term strategy this time (again).
Their strategy looks more and more similar to Kamen Rider or Precure series, where franchise changes every 1-2 yrs and make money every time. This is more like toy maker's strategy (as pointed out by someone too), rather than Pokemon route.

Maybe I'm misreading you, but I don't think you're describing a short term strategy. Super Sentai's been doing that same thing since the eighties without pause. Mid-seventies if you want to stretch the definition a little. Continually refreshing a powerhouse franchise is a good way to maintain it.

I have just few anecdotal evidence but that sure isn't the case. YW is laser-sharp focus on kids under 10 yrs old.
(That may be another reason they aren't seeking to keep franchise for 10 years or longer).

If that's true, then yeah. It may be difficult to get the series out of fad territory.
 
I don't think it's hate at all, more sympathetic that they could well drive another series into the ground through excessive releases.

And people have the nerve to defend Level-5 and their endless milking.

There are some things to consider:
  • Is Level-5 milking all that special to stress everytime that they are milking? This week there is the expansion of a game released just one year ago: Monster Hunter. Milking is obvious and typical of big and medium franchise; even smaller IPs are exploited a lot (Atelier, Neptunia, Etrian Odyssey). Sometimes it works, sometimes it does not. If you look at top seller games in late 90s, you could IPs like Yu-Gi-Oh selling million, or even Mini4WD selling 700-800k units.
  • Even with milking, Level-5 IPs could still sell respectable numbers. The Last Layton and Inazuma Eleven entries sold more than 250k units; way less than previous entries, of course, but not bad given production values and a market outside Japan.
  • Level-5 knows that its audience is mainly composed of kids, and kids move rapidly to the next big thing. Knowing that, the best strategy is to milk as fast as they can, so to exploit the momentum. In the case of Yo-kai Watch, what I see is really a good management of a franchise that quickly become one of the biggest in the industry. Yo-kai Watch is really generating juge revenues right now, and Level-5 has to extract as much as it could, when the thing is hot.

In sum, it i true that Level-5 is over-exploiting their IPs; it is also true that this strategy has been proved to be effective: Level-5 is able to create successful IPs, one after the other one; YW success is something that you cannot create from scratch if you have no idea on how to do it.

Well, if we view children's products like popular music games (inherently possessing a decidedly limited lifespan in which you want to capitalize as much value as possible before it fades away), then I think it makes sense to treat your customer base as an infinitely elastic ATM machine because otherwise you're going to miss out on a lot of value you could have gotten.

However, given we've actually seen children's franchises like Pokemon survived incredibly long periods of time with large amounts of popularity, I feel Level 5's inability to keep their franchises going long term more so speaks to failings in their strategy than the state of the market itself.

Could it be different this time? Sure, but I'm not convinced there's an obvious impetus for why it would be.

Pokémon is the only example though.

If you look carefully at the charts before Level-5 became big, you could totally spot PLENTY of kids franchises that lasted even less than Inazuma Eleven or Little Battlers eXperience. Some of them lasted more, but in general the lifespan is very short; take Yu-Gi-Oh (multi-million seller on GB), Mini-4WD (more than 600k units on SNES and GB), Mushi King (more than 600k units on GBA), Love & Berry (million seller on DS); most of them completely disappeared, while some of them resisted but are irrelevant in the video game industry.

Pokémon is a weird example for a variety of reasons:
  1. It is the biggest IPs ever in the Japanese video game industry; when you are so big, decline is hard to evaluate; Pokémon Red/Blue/Green sold 7m units - Pokémon X/Y 4.5m... This is a huge decline but numbers are still big and relevant in the market.
  2. Pokémon attracted people of different ages; right now, the demography of the game in Japan is not so skewed towards kids as I imagine is for YW and other Level-5's IP.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't it commonly noted that Youkai Watch's popularity comes from a wide appeal? Like Pokemon, it sells to both adults and children. I think that in itself is a good sign that the series could have longevity if treated properly.

That said, I'm kind of curious as to why milking would destroy Youkai Watch despite Pokemon still going strong. It's not like Pokemon doesn't release third versions and doesn't flood the market with weird tie-in goods. What is it about Level-5's milking method that fails?
I feel there are a couple of things Level 5 does that don't quite match up with how other developers handle annualization.

1.) Their cadence is faster than a lot of publishers. Most will only release a mainline entry once a year, and any other products are explicitly spin-offs. Here you've got mainline entries every 12 months followed by an enhanced edition of the mainline game in the middle, causing a 6 month schedule. I don't believe this is something you can opt into as DLC as well, so it's a notable expense to keep up with the latest mainline product. With Pokemon you have the mainline entries, third versions, and remakes, but that makes up around a three year cycle if all you're interested in is the mainline game, and it's only once a year if you want the absolute newest traditional product.

2.) I could be wrong, but I'm not under the impression that Level 5 has stacked teams with two year development cycle. With Activision (Skylanders, CoD) or Ubisoft (Assassin's Creed) you have alternating teams so that each individual game in the franchise can be notably ambitious and different from the prior ones despite the rate at which they come out. With Pokemon you usually have at least a three year cycle to make improvements on the mainline titles, which are the flagship sellers. Maybe I'm confused and Level 5 does have alternating teams, but I feel I remember Hino saying that the games are made in 12 months when comparing it to the 18 months it takes to make an anime tie-in.
 

mrjohill

Member
I just hope level 5 doesn't squander the gift they have been given in an ip that is guaranteed to sell. Ya know like they did the last few times
 

crinale

Member
Maybe I'm misreading you, but I don't think you're describing a short term strategy. Super Sentai's been doing that same thing since the eighties without pause. Mid-seventies if you want to stretch the definition a little. Continually refreshing a powerhouse franchise is a good way to maintain it.

Oh I may have stretched the short-term thing bit too much. What I wanted to refer was the strategy to make toys "obsolete" annually, to make sure kids demand parents new toys.
If Hino somehow successfully makes "Level 5 game" as super-sentai series-esque franchise then he can make money constantly :)
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Pokémon is the only example though.

If you look carefully at the charts before Level-5 became big, you could totally spot PLENTY of kids franchises that lasted even less than Inazuma Eleven or Little Battlers eXperience. Some of them lasted more, but in general the lifespan is very short; take Yu-Gi-Oh (multi-million seller on GB), Mini-4WD (more than 600k units on SNES and GB), Mushi King (more than 600k units on GBA), Love & Berry (million seller on DS); most of them completely disappeared, while some of them resisted but are irrelevant in the video game industry.

Pokémon is a weird example for a variety of reasons:
  1. It is the biggest IPs ever in the Japanese video game industry; when you are so big, decline is hard to evaluate; Pokémon Red/Blue/Green sold 7m units - Pokémon X/Y 4.5m... This is a huge decline but numbers are still big and relevant in the market.
  2. Pokémon attracted people of different ages; right now, the demography of the game in Japan is not so skewed towards kids as I imagine is for YW and other Level-5's IP.
I would essentially argue that many of Nintendo's franchises (Mario, Mario Kart, Kirby, Animal Crossing) and Dragon Quest have significant appeal and userbases among children and have managed to stand the test of time.

That said, it would be true that these are products not nigh-exclusively targeted at children, which may be a contributing factor in their ability to sustain (via parents and older siblings sharing their interest with younger children). Yokai Watch may not necessarily have the appeal to participate in that.
 
They should make spin-offs if they want to release a new game every 6 months.

Anyway...

Million sellers in 2014:

3DS : Super Smash Bros. for Nintendo 3DS ( Nintendo ) { 2014-09-13 } - 987,239 / 1,539,505
3DS : Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso / Honke ( Level 5 ) { 2014-07-10 } - 1,281,096 / 2,633,153

Likely to join the list:

- Monster Hunter 4 Ultimate
- Pokémon ORAS
- Youkai Watch 2.5
- Youkai Watch (998,482)
- Mario Kart 8 (681,384)
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
LINE made some notable announcements at a big press conference recently, but since a lot of people might not really know who they are, let me give some background about both them and the industry position they've taken over.

Back in the feature phone days, two companies dominated the mobile charts due to their incredibly strong distribution platforms. These companies were DeNA (who distributes games under the Mobage name) and GREE.

DeNA would partner with external companies to have them develop games for their platform using a combination of the publisher's IPs and the game framework/monetization strategy from DeNA.

GREE on the other hand would essentially license your IP and make your game for you with their internal staff.

The games they made were incredibly similar in nature to those of DeNA, so the practical difference was what business model you preferred. Almost every publisher took part in this as all these games were making so much money.

These games continued to have success into the smartphone era until around 2012 when they started to decline when more sophisticated, better performing (DeNA/GREE games were run through a mobile web browser) titles like Puzzle & Dragons started taking off. GREE and DeNA still have some hits, but their position is notably diminished and they have fewer partnerships than they used too, especially as mobile has become more important to the publishers they partnered with.

However, notably, another platform has also risen in their place in the smartphone world. LINE is a popular social networking service that has 50 million users in Japan and 300 million in total. Think of it sort of like a Facebook-esque type of thing (though more focused on instant communication) for smartphones, primarily popular in Asia.

It was actually originally created quite recently as a response to the Tōhoku earthquake in 2011 when land based telecommunication systems were damaged and NHN Japan's employees needed an internet based way to communicate, and ended up taking off dramatically after it was released to the public due to its quality.

Around 2013 LINE started distributing games through their service and created LINE Corporation (a subsidiary) to handle making and distributing games. Much like on Facebook, these games became astronomically popular due to the popularity of the underlying service. These titles were also generally of high production values and are more interactive than what Facebook games were like when they came out by virtue of being on a smartphone. LINE's titles tend to dominate the high end of the top grossing charts as viewable here: http://www.appannie.com/apps/ios/top/japan/overall/?device=iphone

Now LINE is increasingly getting into the same partnership business that Mobage and GREE were renowned for. They've set up new jointly owned subsidiaries with both CyberAgent and GREE itself that will make games distributed through the LINE platform, along with starting an angel investment arm that is investing in smaller studios to generate more content for their platform. This is in addition to their internal development studios that are already producing a notable amount of content.

They've also partnered with media publishers to ramp up their efforts in bringing their transmedia efforts outside of Japan, which they handle internally in the domestic market, along with a variety of other non-gaming related ambitions to help keep their platform incredibly relevant.

There is a full overview press release here and their general new page with the individual announcements press releases is here.

As for how they've been doing, they've been continuing to experience explosive revenue growth.

graph_enbjuut.png


Overall, I just wanted to give a look at what is likely to be an increasingly potent force in Japanese gaming, in case they come up significantly more in the future.
 
I hope this doesn't affect YW2 too much, it was fun seeing it remain stable for so long.

Theeen again, YW2 announcement didn't exactly hurt YW1 sales.
 
Am I wrong or this type of mobile game publishers don't really exist in the West? What we have here is the platform owner (e.g. Apple) and then developers (that might be big companies such as Capcom to Flappy Bird creator).
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Am I wrong or this type of mobile game publishers don't really exist in the West? What we have here is the platform owner (e.g. Apple) and then developers (that might be big companies such as Capcom to Flappy Bird creator).

Yeah, for the most part it doesn't exist on mobile in the West.

The closest analogs would be Facebook or Steam, where on PC you don't technically need a distribution platform, but they can serve as one for you and be a notable boost to sales performance.
 
I doubt Mario Kart 8'll be hitting 1 million this year.
Nintendo might announce a bundle, and Smash buyers will likely get Mario Kart as well. I think it's possible!

Oh and I forgot to add 2014 digital sales to Youkai Watch:

965,446 (retail 2014) + 30,516 (digital Jan-Aug 2014) = 998,482
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
Nintendo might announce a bundle, and Smash buyers will likely get Mario Kart as well. I think it's possible!

Oh and I forgot to add 2014 digital sales to Youkai Watch:

965,446 (retail 2014) + 30,516 (digital Jan-Aug 2014) = 998,482

So L5 might sell a million copies of every 3DS Yo-Kai Watch SKU this year.

Yo-kai Watch
Yo-kai Watch 2: Ganso
Yo-kai Watch 2: Honke
Yo-kai Watch 2: Shinuchi

Crazy.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
From many here YW2 was supposed to cut sales from YW with its early announcement. It didn't happen.

And finally a big December title for 3DS' holidays.
 

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Bless you Hiska-kun!

Why are employees holding pickets in their hands? Is it a Japanese thing?

Going to be a great week for Nintendo. They are shaping up to have a splendid holiday season, including Wii U.
 

squall23

Member
Why are employees holding pickets in their hands? Is it a Japanese thing?
Those are signs regarding that's the line for (insert event here) and approximately how many people are in front. I mean, sure in many other countries, you don't see employees holding those signs and instead just plant it on the ground, so who knows if it's a Japanese thing.
 
From many here YW2 was supposed to cut sales from YW with its early announcement. It didn't happen.

And finally a big December title for 3DS' holidays.



Could YW2.5 (12/13) + YW movie (12/20) affect Pokemon, which will be released just 3 weeks before ?

audience is basically the same
 
Rapidly cycling burnout would probably be "fine" if Level-5 could consistently come up with new properties to replace those they burn out.

They've managed to strike gold again with Yokai Watch, but given their fair share of misses along with their hits, I don't think it's particularly certain that if they burn the crap out of this too that whatever follows will be a Yokai Watch or Inazuma or Layton and not a comparatively less successful Little Battlers or worse a Time Travellers.
 
new YW for December is a good move by L5, the franchise is still in its growth phase and its still the hot game this year, this is milking but very good milking, it's not gonna hurt the franchise one bit.

L5 has never created such a hit game of this magnitude, I hope they're smart enough to keep it going instead of milking it for all its worth moving forward.

YW1 is still selling and alot of people double dipped for YW2 and no doubt some people will triple-dip, then there's people who skipped YW2 and people who will be new fans in December.

Brilliant stuff from L5.

You cannot count on something like YW being long term. There is too much volatility in that particular market to take the risk. Cash in, cash often.
YW is up there with Pokemon/AC/MH, it has the potential to be a big seller for years, it just depends on how L5 manages it.

Cross-media games like YW is a long-term strategy, since it appeals to as many people as it can.
 

Mory Dunz

Member
new YW for December is a good move by L5, the franchise is still in its growth phase and its still the hot game this year, this is milking but very good milking, it's not gonna hurt the franchise one bit.

L5 has never created such a hit game of this magnitude, I hope they're smart enough to keep it going instead of milking it for all its worth moving forward.

YW1 is still selling and alot of people double dipped for YW2 and no doubt some people will triple-dip, then there's people who skipped YW2 and people who will be new fans in December.

Brilliant stuff from L5.


YW is up there with Pokemon/AC/MH, it has the potential to be a big seller for years, it just depends on how L5 manages it.

Cross-media games like YW is a long-term strategy, since it appeals to as many people as it can.

I don't know...
Obviously, I could be wrong, but I just feel like this will burn out the series. I feel like having to wait for a new installment/version/game/whatever can be beneficial to performance in the market (but not too long of wait).

Wasn't Yokai Watch doing like 30K a week when YW2 released? And YW2 will be doing good numbers when this releases.

Short term, it'll have monstrous sales. I just wonder what the situation will be in 4 years.
Personally, I think YW2 should've released when this one is releasing.
 

Chris1964

Sales-Age Genius
Could YW2.5 (12/13) + YW movie (12/20) affect Pokemon, which will be released just 3 weeks before ?

audience is basically the same

From what I read YW mechanics are simplistic comparing to Pokemon.

When a genre is strong on a system usually a game from that genre is benefited.

Shooters on Xbox
Monter Hunter clones on PSP
Platformers / party games on Wii

I don't think there was a problem with strong competition.

Short term, it'll have monstrous sales. I just wonder what the situation will be in 4 years.
Personally, I think YW2 should've released when this one is releasing.

4 years? That's a very long time for this market.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
So how long does everyone think it will take for the New 3DS to beat the Vita in LTD? In Japan.

Has the 3DS LL done it yet?

Edit: oh just noticed the ltd discrepancy on the front page. Wow.

So it won't take long?
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
From what I read YW mechanics are simplistic comparing to Pokemon.

When a genre is strong on a system usually a game from that genre is benefited.

Shooters on Xbox
Monter Hunter clones on PSP
Platformers / party games on Wii

I don't think there was a problem with strong competition.



4 years? That's a very long time for this market.

Out of curiosity though, haven't all the IPs that seem to have survived over longer periods of time taken time off between their games? It's pretty much the only way to maintain quality unless you have multiple teams working simultaneously like CoD does (and even then I feel quality slips...)
 
When discussing about YW, there are some things people do not consider; the IP is huge, way bigger than any other previous Level-5's IP and one of the biggest third party properties in the market. Even when decreasing, it can maintain a decent amount of sales, as Inazuma Eleven kept a 400k fanbase after it was million seller. Also, comparison with previous franchises might seem a bit off; for example, Layton did not have the same audience, and it was a different genre as well; Layton, Inazuma and LBX all suffered from the change of platform, also. And in any case, they last way more than 2 years.

Yeah, for the most part it doesn't exist on mobile in the West.

The closest analogs would be Facebook or Steam, where on PC you don't technically need a distribution platform, but they can serve as one for you and be a notable boost to sales performance.

This is a peculiarity worth discussing, isn't it?

Rapidly cycling burnout would probably be "fine" if Level-5 could consistently come up with new properties to replace those they burn out.

They've managed to strike gold again with Yokai Watch, but given their fair share of misses along with their hits, I don't think it's particularly certain that if they burn the crap out of this too that whatever follows will be a Yokai Watch or Inazuma or Layton and not a comparatively less successful Little Battlers or worse a Time Travellers.

One thing: they didn't strike gold again. This is the first time that such a huge IP in their hands. So the situation is a little bit different than before.

In any case, it is worth mentioning that while they were trying different new IP, they still have nice sales with their Layton and Inazuma. For example, when they launched Girls' RPG they still have a 400k+ Inazuma.

I think it's fair to say that, right now, Level-5 is able to understand well the market; given its huge success with IP, it also has improved relationship with retailers, toy manufacturers, and also a brand reputation among kids.
 

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Mistwalker announced that Terra Battle (iOS / Android, ftp) is now over 100,000 downloads. 120,000 right now, to be more precise. You can follow the total being updated here: http://www.terra-battle.com/en/
The game released on October 9th, 2014, in Japan, Canada, US, France, Germany, Spain and UK.

But I wanted to analyse these numbers, going by charts. Just those from US and Japan, given their relevance.

Up to yesterday this is how the game was doing

iOS - US
iPhone - 147th Overall in Downloads; 307th Overall in Grossing
iPad - 91st Overall in Downloads (Grossing only shows Action and Role-Playing, not Overall, for some strange reason)

iOS - Japan
iPhone - 14th Overall in Downloads; 28th Overall in Grossing
iPad - 5th Overall in Downloads; 31st Overall in Grossing

Android - US - 495th Overall in Downloads (Grossing only shows Role-Playing, not Overall)

Android - Japan - 523rd Overall in Downloads; 489th Overall in Grossing

Also, going on Google Play

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.mistwalkercorp.guardians

The game is between 5,000 and 10,000 downloads there.

At first, I found this so strange, since it would've meant a staggering difference between iOS and Android, and so I've tried to see if there were a different, Japan-only version of the game on GP (like for Dragon Quest VIII), but I couldn't find anything, so I suppose that's the overall amount of downloads up to yesterday?

But, seeing the charts placements, it seems to be one of those games doing much better on iOS than on Android.

Also, going by US v.s. Japan, it seems to be a game with a much higher presence in Japan than in US, so a good majority of those 120,000 comes from there.
 
Top Bottom