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Media Create Sales: Week 16, 2015 (Apr 13 - Apr 19)
- Thread starter hiska-kun
- Start date
About beeing relevant, these numbers are 10+ years old, since then a lot of things changed within SQEX and Japan in particular, so I doubt these are really that relevant today. I think it´s safe to expect a very significant decline from KH2 to KH3.
Also new IPs or IPs in general don´t necessarily need to be million sellers to be seen as viable, just look at the Yakuza IP which is a very Japan centric business decision, and to be more SQEX specific, they recently announced new entries in the Saga and Star Ocean serieses, the most recent entries of both IPs aren´t comparable with SQEX big hits either.
The marketing efforts for Bravely Second have been minimalistic at best, and mainly reached people that acively look for informations, a more serious effort would have been beneficial and cemented a new mid-tier IP, something that more publishers seem to look for after the "blockbuser or bust" mentality just a few years ago.
Also about updated versions in general, while it isn´t a big problem for highly hyped games, I doubt the longterm benefits to mid-tier Ips with a rather limited userbase, in Bravely Defaults/Seconds case it seems to be less a mainstream audience but a more informed one, we can´t say how this will affect sales but it wouldn´t surprise me if people expect an updated version to eventually com out and thus playing the waiting game, while there are also people doing the same when it comes to the Monster Hunter series with the G version, it has the advantage of a target audience of some millions gamers and therefore doesn´t suffer as much.
Pennywise83
Banned
Well, there were many. The Last Remnant, Infinite Undiscovery, Radiata Stories, Code Age Commanders, Sigma Harmonics, Blood of Bahamut, The World Ends With You among those I can think of. Of course most of them were low-budget efforts, but so was BD.
Yes. According to SQEX, the game sold 140.000 in NA and 20.000 in Europa. More updated data from NPD leaks had TWEWY at 172.000 units in NA.
test_account
XP-39C²
How much was/is Bravely Second marketed in Japan? I see that there at least is TV commercials for it (a 15 second and a 30 second version).
At some time, i also thought FF stood for Final Fantasy hehe. I didnt follow up on the game very much and i've heard someone talk about Final Fantasy in regards to Bravely Default.
Hum yes, which put it at near 200k by the end of 2008, I don't think it stopped selling altogether after that so it should be higher than that.
I remember reading the 400k numbers for America a few years ago, I don't think it was chartz number but I can't seem to find a legit source.
A fourth is kinda a big stretch anyway (not to mention different sales because of different publisher, market circumstances, EFIGS localization etc.)
Pennywise83
Banned
It might have had some legs but I doubt they were enough to push the game around 400k units. Do you want make me say "a third"? Fine, still a lot less.
Bruno MB
Member
The World Ends With You didn't exactly set the charts on fire. While at first glance it could appear that around 200,000 units sold is not a bad performance, we should take into account that the game was overshipped. It had a very low sell-through (41%) and never got a new shipment, Square Enix didn't even bother to release a budget version.
Code:
[Week 30, 2007] [NDS] The World Ends with You (Square Enix) {2007.07.27} - 81.326 / NEW <41,0%>
[Week 31, 2007] [NDS] The World Ends with You (Square Enix) {2007.07.27} - 40.926 / 122.252 (-50%) <61,3%>
[Week 32, 2007] [NDS] The World Ends with You (Square Enix) {2007.07.27} - 22.919 / 145.171 (-44%) <72,5%>
[Week 33, 2007] [NDS] The World Ends with You (Square Enix) {2007.07.27} - 18.226 / 163.397 (-20%) <81,4%>
[Week 34, 2007] [NDS] The World Ends with You (Square Enix) {2007.07.27} - 8.232 / 171.629 (-55%) <85,4%>
[Week 52, 2007] [NDS] The World Ends with You (Square Enix) {2007.07.27} - * / 192.955On the positive side, it had relatively good post-launch legs mostly helped by Obon festival.
Moor-Angol
Banned
Well: DQX, MH3U (and, let's face it, MH4U at some point!), XCX, #FE is the current line-up of RPGs that we know about. That's generally enough games for a person to justify a console if their interest was a sole genre and nothing else. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw another RPG or something down the road, I still don't believe Nintendo is going to retire/kill the WiiU rather than introduce a handheld that is able to, effectively, run its software (and vise-versa) instead. And, let's be honest, everyone wants MK8.
You can possibly count the WiiU's Wii mode as well for Pandora's, Last Story, etc. That's usually not much of a strong reason to buy up, though, unless its someone who had a Wii and strong library and their old machine was starting to chug.
For a large part, the reason I actually bought a WiiU as early as I did was because my Wii was breaking from abuse as it was a big party machine.
kuroneko0509
Member
there's no point in spoilering a link lol
I don't see Bravely Default as S-E's "best-selling new IP since Kingdom Hearts", and furthermore, Kingdom Hearts isn't even a new IP. When talking about the value of new IPs, we should always be looking at it in a practical way instead of a technical way. In the same way that KH was successful because because it is basically Disney + FF, it is clear that a lot of the success of BD comes from being a FF game in everything but name. The same job classes, a similar job system, using lots of monster designs from 4WoL, there's really very little original about it in the eyes of consumers.
I guess it says a lot about S-E as a company when it is so hard to really define any of their successes as brand new ideas.
Actually this is an interesting thought experiment.
Let's start by excluding Kingdom Hearts for FF x Disney and Bravely Default was essentially being a rebranded version of continuing old FF ideas.
Now, let's also enact the criteria that the IP must be Japanese and still exist as an active IP today.
Also, let's focus on console/handheld instead of mobile and arcade, since I know a lot of people aren't interested in discussing the other two.
Here are when the following IPs started:
Console/Handheld:
Dragon Quest: May 27, 1986
Final Fantasy: December 18, 1987
SaGa: December 15, 1989
Fortune Street: March 21, 1991
____ of Mana: August 6, 1993
Star Ocean: July 19, 1996
I'm not sure Chaos Rings is still alive and that's clearly mobile derived. Lords of Vermillion is arcade. Million Arthur is also a mobile IP. Drakenguard, Tactics Ogre, and Lufia seem pretty dead at this point. Parasite Eve they're not even remotely talking about. Chrono Trigger is mega dead. A lot of others like The Bouncer, TWEWY, and Xenogears were one offs.
Is there anything I'm forgetting?
That puts things in a rather bleak perspective. On the point of Xenogears, they're not really going to ever do anything with that since Monolith/the talent of those games, is gone. Its an IP in name only at this point with no one there to work on it.
It's only bleak cause a lot is being excluded for who knows what.
They've released new IPs with old formulas (Bravely Default), they've released old IPs with new ideas (Theatrhythm, Final Fantasy Explorers), and they've done stuff on mobile.
It's where the debate stems from, no?
We started here:
If we want to switch to "Are new IPs even a meaningful concept?" then sure, but at that point I think we can remove BD's treatment from being an oddity since it's just a less successful incarnation of FF when they have major FF titles to focus on instead.
What's your take on things?
Pennywise83
Banned
Ok, so BD is just a less successful incarnation of FF. In this light, SQEX should kill the sub-franchise as soon as possible, as they did with plenty of previous sub-FF, or move to mobile, so they can work on mainline entries.
I think that's how they generally operated their business over the years and it's why they arrived at a paucity of sustained IPs.
Like during the PS1 era, if you were successful, you would be onboarded to work on a Final Fantasy mainline game or a Final Fantasy spin-off instead of whatever else you were working on before, especially if you were internal staff.
As an aside, I listed Xenogears as a dead franchise for example, but if Takahashi stayed at Square Enix, I suspect his team would have done a mainline Final Fantasy instead of continuing on with the series, since that was the direction the company was heading in.
It worked early on, but as the brand eventually declined in the face of uneven quality and the actual meaning of the brand fading, it showed some of the issues with putting all your eggs in one basket.
Even now I wouldn't consider most of the remaining IPs I listed there as healthy. SaGa and Star Ocean aren't exactly leading brands, nor is Mana.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Why is Drakengard dead when we just had 3. Dissidia and also FF Type-1 have been teased.
Not sure what I'd expect of FFType given its... performance even if its a port, I think expectations were a good bit higher than what was achieved of the re-release.
I have to wonder, actually, what happens to the mainline FF if FFXV just doesn't do "that well"? I think a lot of gamers are tired of the franchise after FXIII. What does Sqeueenix do if their biggest franchise performs only modestly?
http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=744013
Here we get back to "What is a new IP?"
If we're talking about it in the traditional legal sense, the Intellectual Property would be things like the branding, the world, the characters, as opposed to the mechanics and gameplay constructs.
On that front, these are Final Fantasy branded games.
If we want to discuss it in a different lens - presumably gameplay constructs - I'm open to that suggestion, but at that point I'd want to bundle titles like Bravely Default in as Final Fantasy games and many of the Final Fantasy spin-offs as being new IPs.
As a quickly increasing digital games provider, it's not actually a huge issue for them financially. They released almost nothing meaningful at retail this year and made money. Mobile revenue and subscribers are providing them a very solid income base.
Beyond that, they have like 7 AAA retail IPs these days between the four from Eidos and three from Japan.
Ahh, I see. I guess that explains why they can throw away a success like Bravely. Do they have a recently published earnings breakdown? I'd like to read up on their breakdowns for income from the mobile/subs avenue.
We'd get Bravely Second on iOS.
We'll get another one soon (late April/early May is earnings season and the end of the fiscal year), but here's their six month results.
Given how sparse their retail line-up has been this year, if they hit that 100 billion yen target, expect the MMO and smart device/browser line-up bars to be large.
Edit:
They're a 75.5 billion yen as of the end of December 2014, but they only give a breakdown every 6 months on where it comes from.
bravely second would be produced on the same budget
reusing most of the assets from the first game
but now f2p phone game
Pennywise83
Banned
I wonder what will happen when SQEX will have not powerful IPs left, because of mobile fidelization is harder (and I cannot imagine doing remake of Million Arthur Kings, or those IPs lasting for decades) and FF and DQ slowly faded as their fanbases grew up.
We'll get another one soon (late April/early May is earnings season and the end of the fiscal year), but here's their six month results.
Given how sparse their retail line-up has been this year, if they hit that 100 billion yen target, expect the MMO and smart device/browser line-up bars to be large.
Edit:
They're a 75.5 billion yen as of the end of December 2014, but they only give a breakdown every 6 months on where it comes from.
Just wanted to add, for those not informed about Square Enix's reports: HD Games include both home and handheld games.
Well, their current set of mobile hits is:
Really Big:
-Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light (console IP)
-Million Arthur 2 (mobile IP, sequel to account for the switch in how the feature phone to smartphone game market evolved)
-Final Fantasy Record Keeper (console IP, DeNA made/published)
-School Girl Strikers (mobile IP, first entry)
Moderately Big:
-Sangukushi Rumble (new IP, first entry)
-Dragon Quest X Companion App (this isn't exactly a game in the strictest sense by a tie-in service to the MMO)
There's a variety of smaller hits that go in and out of the top 100 chart like:
-Pictologica: Final Fantasy
-Final Fantasy: Legends
-The Irregular At Magic High School: Lost Zero
Beyond that I'd consider the titles to not be big enough to really be hits for a company the size of Square Enix. Maybe a smaller publisher like Sega.
They do seem to generate some original hits on the platform. I'm curious to see how they follow up this fiscal year though since it was way more successful for them than their previous ones with a hit rate of maybe 40-50% of their notable apps released, which will be a hard feat to repeat unless they've really figured out the market.
That said I don't think a lot of these games will have sequels unless the market changes enough that they need one to stay relevant (see Million Arthur), so it'll be especially interesting on the basis they have to launch a whole ton of new games that are essentially planned as 5-10+ year services.
I'm unsure which of the other two categories f2p PC games go under (Nosgoth, Heroes & Generals), but they bundled under a non-obvious name as well.
Edit:
Correction, as 1st Course points out, f2p PC games are under HD Games.
Pennywise83
Banned
Indeed, SQEX is relying on declining IPs (FF) and new mobile hits that, as we saw plenty of times, hardly can last (in a relevant way) more than 5 years; lucky they still have DQ. That's like betting on a super fast horse... under stereoids. But as long as they are having profits, it is fine; it's not that SQEX was ever in danger before (it actually was at least twice in the past).
1st Course
Member
Nogoth and other online client based PC games fall under HD games
Just looking at that, with such sparse retail, the mobile/MMO weight would have had to have shifted substantially from 2013.
Triad Wars makes my heart hurt.
Now there's a reason why a service-game like Million Arthur got a sequel! I was wondering about that
.Also, I don't know if Final Fantasy: Legends can be considered a "smaller hit"...it seems more like a mediocre performer, to me. Just checked its overall trend on iPhone, including latest weeks: it's true that, sometimes, it jumps back into top 100, but it's always for a few days, then back outside of top 100, even near top 200 (recently it was over >200). A bit better on Google Play, being for a while at the bottom of top 100, but went outside of it at the beginning of the month.
Again: probably, Bravely Archive was a better performer than FF:L, at least considering the (probable) lower expectations, compared to Legends.
It's pretty similar to the diversification approach EA took when revamping the company, though of course it's hard to compare to how well executed that was in the end (though not necessarily during the actual transition where they managed a large variety of faceplants while panning for gold).
Square Enix's current line-up, as categorized by platform choice.
AAA console games (and sometimes on PC):
-Final Fantasy (numbered)
-Kingdom Hearts (numbered)
-Tomb Raider
-Deus Ex
-Hitman
-Just Cause
MMOs:
-Final Fantasy XIV
-Dragon Quest X
AA console games:
-Dragon Quest Heroes
-Star Ocean 4
-Eventually Dissidia home port
-HD remasters
Handhelds:
-SaGa
-Theatrhythm
-Bravely Default
-Dragon Quest: Monsters
-Final Fantasy Monster Hunter
-A variety of mobile ports
Mobile:
-See above post, pour in a variety of similar output of a large array of types. They try all sorts of stuff here in a multitude of budgets and genres.
Online F2P:
-Nosgoth
-Heroes & Generals
-Triad Wars
-Lord of Vermillion MOBA
-Spelunker Z
Arcade:
-Dissidia: Final Fantasy
-School of Ragnarok
-Gunstringer Stratos
Downloadable:
-Lara Croft and the Temple of Osiris
Notes:
-Dragon Quest mainline is either going to be console and/or handheld, though it's not clear yet, so I've left it off due to the categories being split.
Thank you. My mistake.
Square Enix's current line-up, as categorized by platform choice.
AAA console games (and sometimes on PC):
-Final Fantasy (numbered)
-Kingdom Hearts (numbered)
-Tomb Raider
-Deus Ex
-Hitman
-Just Cause
MMOs:
-Final Fantasy XIV
-Dragon Quest X
AA console games:
-Dragon Quest Heroes
-Star Ocean 4
-Eventually Dissidia home port
-HD remasters
Handhelds:
-SaGa
-Theatrhythm
-Bravely Default
-Dragon Quest: Monsters
-Final Fantasy Monster Hunter
-A variety of mobile ports
Mobile:
-See above post, pour in a variety of similar output of a large array of types. They try all sorts of stuff here in a multitude of budgets and genres.
Online F2P:
-Nosgoth
-Heroes & Generals
-Triad Wars
-Lord of Vermillion MOBA
-Spelunker Z
Arcade:
-Dissidia: Final Fantasy
-School of Ragnarok
-Gunstringer Stratos
Downloadable:
-Lara Croft and the Temple of Osiris
Notes:
-Dragon Quest mainline is either going to be console and/or handheld, though it's not clear yet, so I've left it off due to the categories being split.
Thank you. My mistake.
It's quite the difference.Now there's a reason why a service-game like Million Arthur got a sequel! I was wondering about that
Million Arthur:
Million Arthur 2:
Yes, it's plausible we can dump Legends off the success train, put Bravely Archive on it, or remove both. We should get a better sense with their end of year financial call where they talk about these types of things a lot more deeply than normal.
They list Lost Zero as a success so I try to use that as a barometer for their low end since they're not as information heavy as Sega.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Why are we saying that SE's IP's are declining?
In which sense?
As a whole their stable of successful IPs is growing.
Their IP stable on consoles/handhelds in Japan, which was more the original topic, hasn't grown much in a long time.
Of course, that's also a market that's notable in decline, so hey, there's an argument of par for the course.
If you mean why this came up today, it's due to the Bravely Second shipment/sell-through information, and the debate over whether losing Bravely Default as an active new IP is meaningful, whether or not its a new IP, and related topics.
The lists I'm generating are because people asked about their digital/online revenue growth and talked about their general output strategy, so I'm putting out what that actually is.
EDIT: Wrong thread.
EDIT2: Now for what I wanted to say in this thread.
Whilst the loss Bravely Default as an active IP might not be meaningful I still think it's negligent to not pursue those opportunities to the fullest(if that makes sense?).
To draw a simple comparison when FF Explorers came out there was the discussion of how much more potential an internally developed FF Hunting Action game would have to be a success. But obviously those internal resources can be better spent on higher reward and/or lower risk projects and there's no guarantee that it would be a big enough success so it's understandable not to pursue it.
With Bravely Second there's already a proven level of success(much higher than first anticipated), there's a team in place and resources are already being spent anyway. If Bravely Default was budgeted with 4HoL sales in mind then Bravely Second should have been budgeted with BDFF sales in mind(even if only JP sales that would be an increase). I don't think we've seen that happen.
I think Nirolak's comparison to Fire Emblem is spot on. FE is not Nintendo(or Intelligent System's) biggest brand but Awakening was a success and they're looking to build from that and take it to new heights.
Whilst failing to cultivate the Bravely series might not be that bad for Square Enix I think it's hard to justify or support their decision.
EDIT2: Now for what I wanted to say in this thread.
Whilst the loss Bravely Default as an active IP might not be meaningful I still think it's negligent to not pursue those opportunities to the fullest(if that makes sense?).
To draw a simple comparison when FF Explorers came out there was the discussion of how much more potential an internally developed FF Hunting Action game would have to be a success. But obviously those internal resources can be better spent on higher reward and/or lower risk projects and there's no guarantee that it would be a big enough success so it's understandable not to pursue it.
With Bravely Second there's already a proven level of success(much higher than first anticipated), there's a team in place and resources are already being spent anyway. If Bravely Default was budgeted with 4HoL sales in mind then Bravely Second should have been budgeted with BDFF sales in mind(even if only JP sales that would be an increase). I don't think we've seen that happen.
I think Nirolak's comparison to Fire Emblem is spot on. FE is not Nintendo(or Intelligent System's) biggest brand but Awakening was a success and they're looking to build from that and take it to new heights.
Whilst failing to cultivate the Bravely series might not be that bad for Square Enix I think it's hard to justify or support their decision.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Duno, I see penny speaking of the decline of Final Fantasy and what Square Enix Japan would be like without Dragon Quest and I ask myself what was the topic at hand that brought him to those statements lol
I don't think SE's IP's are declining per se.
The marketplace has changed greatly, as you brought up, and Square Enix knows the era of selling 10 million copies of each new entry of Final Fantasy is quite frankly over.
As a result, they diversified their portfolio to reflect those changes:
- HD Games (Final Fantasy XV - 6 million WW estimate)
- Online Games (Final Fantasy XIV - 500k subscribers)
- Mobile Games
I'm not surprised nor shocked that Bravely Default didn't sell as much as its predecessor. It took too long for the sequel to get out, and frankly the original game left much to be desired - it would of been better it were have been re-purposed as a mobile game.
theprodigy
Member
It's not like it would have mattered what the topic was.
It's only been just over two year since the OG release and only just over a year since For the Sequel. The timeframe is quite standard for a sequel.The legs the game had(including the FTS release) also indicate that the game had positive word of mouth.
Final Fantasy itself has been a downward slope with both mainline entries traditional platform spin-offs. If we assume 6 million worldwide that'd still be a decline from Final Fantasy XIII. If we include things that aren't only the mainline games, titles like Lightning Returns were disasters, and Explorers didn't exactly set the world on fire. Final Fantasy XIV is a great bright spot among the franchise though, Record Keeper is a major success, and their HD remasters did fine in general. I'd still probably consider this the franchise with the most baggage, but of course it's also still the franchises with the most content to criticize.
For Dragon Quest I don't think we really see much in the way of tangible decline given we haven't seen a mainline entry in a while, especially on comparable to what Dragon Quest IX was. The spin-offs all seem to do fine to great as well. We could be pessimistic about Theatrhythm, but that's kind of a far cry from what Dragon Quest is about on almost every level. When we look at mobile we can add in the huge success of Dragon Quest Monsters: Super Light and of course the good performance of the MMO.
But that'd be missing the bigger picture, yes. Tomb Raider just had its best selling entry ever with over 8.5 million copies. Deus Ex was successfully relaunched. Hitman had astonishing sales for what it was even if it didn't meet their absurd expectations. Just Cause has had incredible long tail success. They've launched three new successful IPs on mobile in Japan. While it seems to be fading, Bravely Default had a strong debut, showing they were still able to launch a new traditional platform IP. Their MMO entries are very healthy. Their overall IP catalog strength is increasing even if FF itself definitely isn't an industry leading titan anymore.
But I mean that's the argument I made a few posts ago, no? Even if Final Fantasy XV completely bombed and did something like 1 million units worldwide, it wouldn't be that much of a problem for them in the face of everything else they have going on now.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I don't believe that to be the case.
2 years ago, there were slim pickings for JRPG's on the 3DS, and Bravely Default fit that niche perfectly.
Bravely Default was good, though had many faults and it doesn't seem there are substantial changes in the second release; hence the drop-off, and lack of interest (I think there is a point to be made that many of those original purchasers have moved on to other offerings, on mobile and that this sequel should of been re-purposed for mobile, but that's another discussion to have entirely)
I don't think that's an easy argument to make. I'd say Square Enix has struggled to build/maintain the audience for more traditional RPGs on mobile and I'm not sure we've seen other IPs decline due to that same affect. For instance DQM: Super Light doesn't really seem to have damaged DQ spin offs.
They also do have Bravely Archive which seems to be a somewhat solid performer.
I guess it depends on how we view Bravely Default.
If we view it as a game meant to recreate the experience of SNES era Final Fantasy games, but add in the advancements befitting of a modern video game, I don't think a mobile title is an on the nose choice, since the way games flow and function on mobile is pretty different to how a classic 16 bit JRPG worked.
If we view it as a game that celebrates nostalgia for SNES era Final Fantasy games, then the tremendous success of Final Fantasy: Record Keeper would show that there's a vast audience for that on mobile devices.
I don't think either is necessarily invalid, it's just that one is more akin to Pillars of Eternity (a modernized revival of Infinity Engine games), and the other is more akin to DomiNations (a social-mobile-ilized version of Rise of Nations/Civilization into a successful Clash of Clans game).
If we view it as a game meant to recreate the experience of SNES era Final Fantasy games, but add in the advancements befitting of a modern video game, I don't think a mobile title is an on the nose choice, since the way games flow and function on mobile is pretty different to how a classic 16 bit JRPG worked.
If we view it as a game that celebrates nostalgia for SNES era Final Fantasy games, then the tremendous success of Final Fantasy: Record Keeper would show that there's a vast audience for that on mobile devices.
I don't think either is necessarily invalid, it's just that one is more akin to Pillars of Eternity (a modernized revival of Infinity Engine games), and the other is more akin to DomiNations (a social-mobile-ilized version of Rise of Nations/Civilization into a successful Clash of Clans game).
DarkLordMalik
Member
I am totally fine with SE ignoring handhelds and focusing their efforts on Mobile and AA/AAA consoles games. I really like the new direction they have taken these days.
Anyways, it is not like we had a choice. I am just glad that they didn't turn out as bad as I had hoped for them. We are getting Saga, Dissidia, Star Ocean, and possibly a new Mana too. Not to mention their focus on releasing HD remasters and increasing their presence on Steam are also a step in the right direction.
Anyways, it is not like we had a choice. I am just glad that they didn't turn out as bad as I had hoped for them. We are getting Saga, Dissidia, Star Ocean, and possibly a new Mana too. Not to mention their focus on releasing HD remasters and increasing their presence on Steam are also a step in the right direction.
I think that's a good way of putting it. I think we saw something similar with the backlash for Fantasy Life 2 seemingly replacing the town with a -Ville esque sim setup.
To be fair I think traditional RPGs on mobile is something SE desperately wants to happen, as we can see with Mobius.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
I read the whole thread while I was waiting for your response (which I should of done earlier), interesting discussion.
This is where I lose you because I don't think Final Fantasy is in a downward spiral currently; it was previously yes, but SE has found their footing in that regard since the re-launch of FFXIV: A Realm Reborn.
As I mentioned earlier, one cannot expect a Final Fantasy mainline game to sell as it previously has back in the PS2 (21 million JP) & PS3 era (11 million JP) - the marketplace has changed vastly since then. Each mainline game X (almost 3 million), XIII (2 million+) have declined in Japan, in part due to the console install base (and critical reception).
We will most likely see the same thing happen with the PS4, where LTD will most likely be half of the PS3, and XV will suffer as a result (1.2 million is my guess).
I don't think the above should lead to the conclusion that Final Fantasy is on a downward slope, more that the marketplace has changed. New offerings came about such as mobile, handhelds, and PC to the user; thus limiting the appeal of owing a console (an investment in itself).
As such, SE catered to those needs with the likes of Record Keeper, and FF:XIV AR among others. What's the purpose of buying XV or other mainline entries if I'm already satisfied by those offerings on other platforms? Do we view it as a decline, or more as fragmentation of the consumer base?
But I think this is what you were trying to convey with your earlier posts if I'm not mistaken with the HD, Mobile segment presentations?