Psycho_Mantis
Banned
I think overall the LTD for Smash will remain the same: 7-9 million possibly on the lower end. The 3DS will counter the lost sales from the WiiU sku due to its low install base.
I think overall the LTD for Smash will remain the same: 10 million. The 3DS will counter the lost sales from the WiiU sku due to its low install base.
Yup, I've made this point in the past too. Never have the handheld and console iterations of Nintendo's big games been sooooooooooooo similar not only visually, but from a gameplay perspective as well. Fuck, even the names couldn't be more similar! (Land/World, 7/8, 2/U, for 3DS/for Wii U)
If I'm Joe Walmart, and I see a $99 2DS will all of these games for $39 a pop, why would I even think of buying a $299 console for what are basically the same games?
You sell the Wii U to the customers that already have a 3DS.
The 3DS will continue to have great software sales but hardware sales are slowing down. Nintendo customers looking for a new hardware to buy will consider the Wii U, to play more of what they enjoyed on the 3DS.
Long term. It will also mean the 3DS won't get a successor too soon. It doesn't need it because a) it still is selling software and b) with the Wii U it already has a successor.
I think overall the LTD for Smash will remain the same: 7-9 million possibly on the lower end. The 3DS will counter the lost sales from the WiiU sku due to its low install base.
I think overall the LTD for Smash will remain the same: 7-9 million possibly on the lower end. The 3DS will counter the lost sales from the WiiU sku due to its low install base.
Yes, i think they need something to get current 3DS owners to upgrade. This might be a really nice looking and feature adding revision like the DSi was - or just the successor. 2DS isnt the answer to that problem, because most current owners wont downgrade and i dont think the hardware price point has been a problem for the 3DS. Though a 10K Yen 2DS might help a bit especially for younger kids, still they need a new higher priced model i think.
Agreed. It also means any negative effect the 3DS version could have in the West is minimal. The 3DS version might not solve any problems in the West but it will hurt it even less.7-9 million is a worldwide figure. I think it'll struggle to get to that considering how outside of Japan portables simply aren't as popular, while the WiiU is just as much of a failure. I just don't see a game like Smash selling millions on the 3DS in the US for example.
7-9 million is a worldwide figure. I think it'll struggle to get to that considering how outside of Japan portables simply aren't as popular, while the WiiU is just as much of a failure. I just don't see a game like Smash selling millions on the 3DS in the US for example.
7-9 million is a worldwide figure. I think it'll struggle to get to that considering how outside of Japan portables simply aren't as popular, while the WiiU is just as much of a failure. I just don't see a game like Smash selling millions on the 3DS in the US for example.
Yeah I think your right. I was thinking the WiiU will end up around 10-12 million. So around 3-4 million on WiiU. I guess now that I look at it 3-4 million on 3DS doesn't seem right. So around 2-2.5 million for 3DS SKU resulting in an LTD of 5-6.5 million for Smash 4.
I agree the 2DS will only reach users that don't have a 3DS yet. And that's a good thing because all those double dipping handheld buyers are creating an image of an install base that isn't real. You don't buy twice the games because you own the hardware twice.
3DS needs to deliver consistently good 3rd party sales in the core gaming segment (which it has managed to do well so far) to satisfy 3rd parties' expectations. Another reason why Nintendo will leave the 3DS family to 3rd parties and focus on Wii U in the future.
Honestly they should just go 'games first' route similar to ps4. No gimmicks, they aren't going to work anymore unless it's some revolutionary hardware feature which I don't see them coming up with. Have it a powerful little machine (at the very least with Vita-level power) with launch price of around 130-150 euro and you've got the portable market won. With the casuals moved on to smartphones, it is the gamers that should be targeted. Well and kids, but Mario takes care of that.I think its not that simple, because people who upgrade tend to sell or give their old systems away and thus increasing the userbase. And when it comes to handhelds aka. the people who havent abandoned the market for cheap and small smartphone games thats the better approach. It works for smartphones and other devices as well. As long as the new product revision is delivering.
3DS+ - better looking, better quality screens, more ram+ higher speed cpu could allow for more os-features like having mulitple games in standby/save-state mode or support for virtual console gba and snes titles.
I think such a device is possible, but they might just held it back to make sure to have more selling point for the 3DS successor and making sure it hits the ground running. Having their handheld support all VC systems by the time it comes out would be a big selling point for me at least.
Oh yes, I agree it's far too late for Wii U.Dont get me wrong i get that. The situation for the Wii U and its software output is a disaster. They screwed up big time years ago with the titles that got greenlit and they mismanaged the support they would get from 3rd parties.
Smash on WiiU could have been released in two weeks for 2k Yen and it still wouldn't change the outcome of the system more than it is with a later release of the 3DS version.
I feel like im reading many unrealistic expectations from people wanting the WiiU to get a better treatment just for the sake of it This is business and at this point its all about covering their asses for Nintendo till they can get the next home-console out and somewhat please their shareholders. Their is a reason why nobody would be surprised if WiiU games like SMT x Fire Emblem end up on 3DS instead or 3DS DKCR port has no trouble outselling the brand new WiiU version.
You also could argue that many of the 50 million 3DS owners who will be able to experience Smash Bros. 3DS first, might end up picking the WiiU and this version as well at a later point. Isnt this the argument of why Nintendo should put its content on Smartphones/tablets ? Getting a way bigger userbase to play the game and convert some of them to potential buyers of their dedicated gaming devices. Getting the 3DS userbase to "upgrade" or at least considering the WiiU seems to be the goal now, which is also supported by handheld titles hitting the WiiU VC. Especially when it comes to younger customers, the 3DS is where its at right now and they cant really afford having them to miss a big part of their consumers by going exclusive on their bomba system with such a title.
Yeah, I still expect Smash on Wii U to do around 2-3 million like the other top selling Wii U games.With multiplayer heavy titles like Mario Kart and Smash the home-console version still will have its pull. No it wont set the world on fire, but i doubt this would be the case even if there wasnt a 3DS version. Would NSMB U would have sold way better without a NSMB 2 on 3DS ? I really doubt it. 3DS and WiiU version are different games and i dont see the 3DS as a substitute for people who want to play a better looking Smash on the big screen with their friends.
Right, I totally agree here. This is the correct move for the 3DS and it's something that's not really likely to effect the Wii U in a notably negative way given where it is already.Their overall software strategies failed to highlight the unique Wii U features and the system is struggling to find an identity. Expected games that hit every home-console like Mario Kart or Smash wont change this situation. When you look at their current situation and the short-term to midterm goals the Smash release makes sense. In the last years, while other publisher have been focusing on their big fall titles, Nintendo has been using the spot to launch their bigger handheld games like NSMB2 or Animal Crossing New Leaf because their position in the handheld market allows it.
As it stands I think releasing the 3DS version as soon as possible is better for gamers and the sales of the game as a whole, especially since it can have the entire Fall period to sell while the 3DS is still relevant and in need of some stronger software.If we examine the Smash Bros. 3DS/WiiU release in a vacuum without the prior shortcomings and screw-ups concerning the WiiU system. Which release pattern would benefit Nintendo and gamers more ? Am i right thinking that a Holiday release for the WiiU version and the 3DS version for 2015 would have solved most complains we are having right now ? It definitely feels that way.
7-9 million is a worldwide figure. I think it'll struggle to get to that considering how outside of Japan portables simply aren't as popular, while the WiiU is just as much of a failure. I just don't see a game like Smash selling millions on the 3DS in the US for example.
That is true but those used systems will eat into new system sales so how beneficial they actually are to the software market is questionable. The 2DS on the other hand is as cheap as a used system but provides 100% new sales, both hardware and software.I think its not that simple, because people who upgrade tend to sell or give their old systems away and thus increasing the userbase.
If you give people a reason to upgrade they will probably want to. And they might get annoyed for buying new hardware already and expecting it to come so some end up waiting for the definitive model. This could be hurting Nintendo now coming from the DS gen.And when it comes to handhelds aka. the people who havent abandoned the market for cheap and small smartphone games thats the better approach. It works for smartphones and other devices as well. As long as the new product revision is delivering.
3DS+ - better looking, better quality screens, more ram+ higher speed cpu could allow for more os-features like having mulitple games in standby/save-state mode or support for virtual console gba and snes titles.
I think such a device is possible, but they might just held it back to make sure to have more selling point for the 3DS successor and making sure it hits the ground running. Having their handheld support all VC systems by the time it comes out would be a big selling point for me at least.
when do we get the new numbers?
Japan Famitsu - quiet week with 3DS 32k from from 57k last week, Vita 23k (41k), PS4 15k (24k), PS3 12k (17k), WiiU 8k (13k)
Japan Famitsu - #1 was Mario Party Island Tour for 3DS with 55k (265k life to date), #2 Yokai Watch 27k (680k life), #3 Just Dance WiiU 20k
Japan Famitsu - quiet week with 3DS 32k from from 57k last week, Vita 23k (41k), PS4 15k (24k), PS3 12k (17k), WiiU 8k (13k)
Eh, that's a fairly boring week right there.Japan Famitsu - quiet week with 3DS 32k from from 57k last week, Vita 23k (41k), PS4 15k (24k), PS3 12k (17k), WiiU 8k (13k)
True, at this point their only obligation for WiiU is to ride it out without scaring off the couple of million users who already bought the system and are probably part of their core fans. Trying to reach many different goals, while introducing a new platform has resulted in mixed message when it comes to their strategy.Oh yes, I agree it's far too late for Wii U.
It doesn't bother me that they're trying to keep their brands relevant in a time where they might otherwise fade. It just sticks out to me that they're not simultaneously trying to work this the other way as well and figure out a solid console model for some of their handheld series.
Now, I get that the Wii U is a failure and that each game on it is in theory a wasted resource from the perspective that they're likely to either lose money or make a relatively marginal profit compared to other opportunities, but since they're bothering to invest in the platform anyway, I feel there's probably room here to try and figure out something at least to capitalize on for when they launch their next home console, assuming they release one.
Well, thats another point i dont quite understand. Im not even talking about games, but a Nintendo App which informs users about release dates, demos, trailers etc.for upcoming games and so. Iwata promised to use smartphones as appetizers for the "real" games on WiiU/3DS. Its probably happening but with their limited staff, all these moves just takes too long to executed. I mean there is still no native Miiverse App, there is no web eShop for buying/selling content from PC/smartphones, no way to pay via NFC support for the eShop and so on.This is a fair argument. I generally feel this tends to work best at selling additional games in the series on the same platform, but studies from companies like EA that work on every platform have shown that games on one platform have driven interest in games in the same series on another platform.
That said, I do think the price wall of getting a Wii U exacerbates this issue in the other direction. EA only makes games on major hit platforms, so a lot of their potential customer base already has several (or even all) the platforms their multiplatform series is on, so their only friction in selling additional titles to people is convincing them it's worth playing another entry in the series, as opposed to having to sell them an expensive piece of hardware to do so.
If we exclude this factor however and focus on the positive correlation aspect here, then we get back to the argument of "If having similar games on the 3DS helps get people interested in buying Wii U titles, why not build new console/Wii U games based on popular handheld series that haven't or have rarely appeared on console before?"
Ultimately what bothers me here is that they're not fully following through on any particular direction. They're not using smartphones to try to sell people on the 3DS and they're not fully using the 3DS to try and sell people the Wii U, but they're also draining out the Wii U into the 3DS to help it. However, the 3DS isn't draining anything out into smartphones, suggesting they see hardware exclusives as a valuable way to sell hardware. There doesn't feel like real unified strategy here so much as them just engaging in various types of immediate damage control regardless of how it positions them long term.
Yeah, I still expect Smash on Wii U to do around 2-3 million like the other top selling Wii U games.
I do think if all the listed series were only on Wii U there would be some bump (Mario Kart, 3D Mario, Smash, NSMB), but that the bump would definitely not be worth the amount of damage and lost sales it would cause on the 3DS.
However, that this is likely true suggests to me an incredibly fundamental issue in their console business and the difficulty of actually supporting two platforms like this when what's in their best interest can often clash. Obviously every person put on a Wii U game is not working on a 3DS game and vice versa, but I feel things like franchise strategy also tend to play into this when looking at the bigger picture.
Right, I totally agree here. This is the correct move for the 3DS and it's something that's not really likely to effect the Wii U in a notably negative way given where it is already.
It's just in the grand scheme of things I feel it continues to add to its identity problem, but if that is relevant at this point is debatable. However, I do think it is possible for this scenario to be both "this is a fine and/or good decision in this case" and "this is part of a problematic pattern for Nintendo's home consoles".
As it stands I think releasing the 3DS version as soon as possible is better for gamers and the sales of the game as a whole, especially since it can have the entire Fall period to sell while the 3DS is still relevant and in need of some stronger software.
It's also better for Nintendo in that it's more likely to generate double dips and to help their strongest remaining business.
I do think that releasing the 3DS version second would be better for the Wii U, but if that is actually a pertinent thing to consider when making business decisions at this point is questionable.
Honestly they should just go 'games first' route similar to ps4. No gimmicks, they aren't going to work anymore unless it's some revolutionary hardware feature which I don't see them coming up with. Have it a powerful little machine (at the very least with Vita-level power) with launch price of around 130-150 euro and you've got the portable market won. With the casuals moved on to smartphones, it is the gamers that should be targeted. Well and kids, but Mario takes care of that.
That is true but those used systems will eat into new system sales so how beneficial they actually are to the software market is questionable. The 2DS on the other hand is as cheap as a used system but provides 100% new sales, both hardware and software.
If you give people a reason to upgrade they will probably want to. And they might get annoyed for buying new hardware already and expecting it to come so some end up waiting for the definitive model. This could be hurting Nintendo now coming from the DS gen.
The Wii U on the other hand doesn't replace the 3DS, it supplements it. People have money to buy something new and they get something that doesn't devalue what they already have. 3DS portable and 3D, Wii U nice graphics and local multiplayer.
When the GB arrived, it had the same games as the NES and later the SNES (this was before the GB was practically already dead and got a second life with a new and unique title, Pokémon). Super Mario, Tetris, Tennis, later Zelda. All sequels or similar games to what was already available on consoles.
But Tetris was very much suited to be a portable game and outperformed the NES version. Also the GB was cheap and many weren't reluctant to buy it as a supplement system to their console. To play more oft the same series they already knew.
The problem the Wii U has is not the lack of unique franchises. The biggest segment of customers keeps playing the same series for new content, not new gameplay. What hurts it is that cheap portables are now the norm and convincing customers to buy a supplement system that is more expensive than your main is a hard sell. Especially since portables are expensive nowadays too.
2DS reverses the process, making portables cheap again. And giving customers a budget for a console, that has some of the features people have grown to love on portables, but also the advantages of a console.
Iwata is thinking long term and he isn't stupid, even if some people here keep claiming that.
Sub 200 € home console, plays and supports all 4DS titles and multi development for both systems is as simple as it can be, supports all Virtual console consoles, no gimmicks that increases the price. Aka. do anything to establish that unfied platform as a base-level for all upcoming games/system like Apple App Store. The shitty game i bought years ago from the Appstore will still run on my 2018 iPhone.
3DSlay still holding over 30k and selling tons of software!Famitsu leaks from our good friend Gibson :
Could be worse, I suppose.3. PS4 15,036
1. Nintendo 3DS LL – 24,213
2. PS Vita – 22,953
3. PS4 – 15,036
4. PS3 – 12,120
5. Wii U – 7,686
6. Nintendo 3DS – 7,467
7. PSP – 2,242
8. PS Vita TV – 1,181
9. Xbox360 – 178
Could be worse, I suppose.
Ouch at all the numbers..Ouch at PS4 number.
Yep, next week.
Nintendos next handheld graphically will be to WiiU similar to what PSV is to PS3. Wouldn´t it be more reasonable to make a "little brother" to WiiU with very similar architecture for easier cross-development, instead of launching a new console based on Nintendos next handheld which won´t be significantly more powerful than WiiU or even worse the same as the handheld like Vita TV? By the time Nintendos next handheld is due (2016/2017) WiiU likely will be at a 200 price range anyway.
Basically I don´t see the benefit in your idea, because you can achieve the same goal without introducing a new console. And there is little to no point in launching a system that by then would be even less competetive compared to other consoles (the upcoming next gen) than WiiU.
I dont see them using the WiiU Power-PC architecture in future devices - which is why i dont expect them to have Wii/WiiU BC for their next system. They can and will of course use whatever they learned from 3DS/WiiU for their software development tools, so is expect WiiU inhouse devs will feel right at home when developing for the 4DS. But for the hardware i expect something that scales more naturally betweens the need for a handheld and homeconsole while being cheap. Amazon is using the overclocked version of 2012/13 Qualcomm mobile SoC in the FireTV - pretty much all Android titles will work with next to no work on it, but it`ll still get exclusive content.
That should be their future approach.
As expected Natural Doctrine sold very poorly.
Does PSV use a Cell-CPU?
I dont see them using the WiiU Power-PC architecture in future devices - which is why i dont expect them to have Wii/WiiU BC for their next system. They can and will of course use whatever they learned from 3DS/WiiU for their software development tools, so is expect WiiU inhouse devs will feel right at home when developing for the 4DS. But for the hardware i expect something that scales more naturally betweens the need for a handheld and homeconsole while being cheap. Amazon is using the overclocked version of 2012/13 Qualcomm mobile SoC in the FireTV - pretty much all Android titles will work with next to no work on it, but it`ll still get exclusive content.
That should be their future approach.
n this perspective, while we are only going to be able to start this with the next system, it will become important for us to accurately take advantage of what we have done with the Wii U architecture. It of course does not mean that we are going to use exactly the same architecture as Wii U, but we are going to create a system that can absorb the Wii U architecture adequately.
The difference between MGSV PS3 and MGSV PS4 now is almost 2:1. Weird how the gap between them only got bigger and bigger with time.
I dont see them using the WiiU Power-PC architecture in future devices - which is why i dont expect them to have Wii/WiiU BC for their next system. They can and will of course use whatever they learned from 3DS/WiiU for their software development tools, so is expect WiiU inhouse devs will feel right at home when developing for the 4DS. But for the hardware i expect something that scales more naturally betweens the need for a handheld and homeconsole while being cheap. Amazon is using the overclocked version of 2012/13 Qualcomm mobile SoC in the FireTV - pretty much all Android titles will work with next to no work on it, but it`ll still get exclusive content.
That should be their future approach.
Huh? Of course their next system will have Wii U BC, Iwata did say it would "integrate" the whole Wii U architecture :
With their whole "switch to account-based relationship" and all, they'll want to make sure people can keep their WiiU software on the next console, just like you can with Android/iOS, so that there's no abrupt gap for users.
I'd be very surprised if there was no BC for their next console, to be honest.
Yep. I see something like this. Their next homeconsole could use modified (and overclocked) high end mobile components. By Christmas 2016 they could release something really decent considering how fast that technology is evolving.
And they could release in the same year a "DSi" kind of redesign for the 3DS (with some new components) to give it a new life and add some unified OS features. I don't think they'll release a new device three years in a row (QoL, homeconsole, handheld)
They need to improve the eShop and make it more like other manufacturers networks first though.
Nope, why would it ? As i said im talking from a hardware point, there is the development-tool environment as well which of course will be based on their current software. They wont redo their whole dev pipeline when working on 4DS software.
You see despite, the big difference between PS3 and PSV there is some kind of cross-development, shared resources going on. Why exactly would a more streamlined architecture than the Cell-CPU cause more problems to create a similar shared ecosystem between WiiU and Nintendos next gen handheld. The handheld can still be designed with their next gen console in mind. Instead of rushing out a new console they should concentrate on WiiU and their next handheld, especially if the proposed solution is a weak/cheap 200$ console in the middle of this generation.