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[Aquamarine]

I just told you how I got those numbers.

I like how once they're within your projections they're "good enough".

Quadrupling would put it around GCN levels actually. In comparison that would be really good, overall? It's good if a userbase around 10-15 million units in America is the intention.

Obviously that's never the intention. The intention is a healthy ecosystem of constant third-party royalties and large profit margins. A low userbase tends to promote the contrary.

It can be anywhere from unprofitable to serviceable, depending on how well the 3DS can prop up the Wii U when it comes to end-of-year profits.

 

[Gamer @ Heart]

So just how badly did army of two perform and does the team still exist?

 

[airmangataosenai]

No, not really, when that system has had no big releases for it...people need to stop comparing the Wii U and Vita situations. I feel like they're almost equated because people intentionally ignore the releases for the system and look purely at numbers. There's no other way they're comparable

Do you really think that selling at the level it is for an additional 3 months until Pikmin comes out won't have any kind of impact on those game's sales? The stench of failure is something hard to overcome, and if at the end of this coming quarter for instance we find out that Nintendo has to halt production of the Wii U the way they did for the Gamecube or the ship less than 100k in a quarter the way they did back in 2004, that is very negative press. Moreover, you overestimate how many people buy these games at launch versus the longer haul sales. Super Mario Sunshine only shifted 350k units at launch to a much, much larger userbase than the Wii U will have when Mario U hits.

 

[etrain911]

Based on what? GAF hype?

Unless Sony throws another "$600 work two jobs" curve ball, the level of consumer interest seems to be fairly high compared to the complete and total consumer apathy shown towards the Wii U. I think if the price point hits a sweet spot with consumers and is close to the Nextbox we'll see decent numbers if not great ones.

 

[Macho Madness]

At least Sony has the wherewithal not to name the PS4 the PS3 U. I attribute some of the poor sales of the Wii U to Nintendo's failure of communicating that this is an entirely new system. The average consumer is pretty darn stupid, and just think! Half the people are stupider than them!

 

[Aquamarine]

While Nintendo's Wii U suffered a blow at ~38,000 units sold in the month of April, the Wii seems to have tumbled with it.

Up until now, the Wii has been crossing streams with Wii U at launch but postively deviated when the 57K bombshell was dropped on us in February.

But with this past month, according to my projections, I have to wonder if the Wii is in precipitous decline moving forward in the USA markets.

I mean, the rapid death of your predecessor isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it is alarming in terms of potential profit that Nintendo can reap from each month without any kind of solid buffer.

Wii consoles are dirt cheap...quick, easy moneymakers. Wii U consoles? Not so much.

 

[GrotesqueBeauty]

While Nintendo's Wii U suffered a blow at ~38,000 units sold in the month of April, the Wii seems to have tumbled with it.

Up until now, the Wii has been crossing streams with Wii U at launch but postively deviated when the 57K bombshell was dropped on us in February.

But with this past month, according to my projections, I have to wonder if the Wii is in precipitous decline moving forward in the USA markets.

I mean, the rapid death of your predecessor isn't necessarily a bad thing, but it is alarming in terms of potential profit that Nintendo can reap from each month without any kind of solid buffer.

Wii consoles are dirt cheap...quick, easy moneymakers. Wii U consoles? Not so much.

Maybe, but I don't think hardware is where the real money is at, and people can still play Wii software on Wii U. Bad numbers clearly aren't a good overall omen for Nintendo, but I don't think the Wii's drop off is anywhere near the heart of the issue. In the long run it's probably a good think for the Wii U, especially in the face of brand confusion.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Are you an insider? :O

 

[Sho_Nuff82]

No, not really, when that system has had no big releases for it...people need to stop comparing the Wii U and Vita situations. I feel like they're almost equated because people intentionally ignore the releases for the system and look purely at numbers. There's no other way they're comparable

In what way are NSMBU, Black Ops 2, and Assassin's Creed 3 not "big releases"? I mean sure, in hindsight we can say they had minimal effect, but they were pretty hyped up coming into launch, and all are sequels in massive series, considerably moreso than Pikmin.

 

[Aquamarine]

Are you an insider? :O

Aren't we all?

Maybe, but I don't think hardware is where the real money is at, and people can still play Wii software on Wii U. Bad numbers clearly aren't a good overall omen for Nintendo, but I don't think the Wii's drop off is anywhere near the heart of the issue. In the long run it's probably a good think for the Wii U, especially in the face of brand confusion.

Well no, Nintendo's largest problem is the stagnant / tumbling Wii U sales. But you have to remember, Nintendo has ensured a 100 billion JPY operating profit for the FY ending March 31st, 2014.

The Wii U is simply not that inherently profitable for Nintendo right now that a large amount of consoles sold would directly translate into a significant amount of profit. Remember Reggie's claim that "the Wii U becomes profitable with just one game sold?" That's an issue.

Sony's strategy with the PS2 post-2006 and Nintendo's strategy with the DS post-2011 is not accidental--two consoles selling at the same time help buffer and replenish the massive sunk costs of a new hardware generation.

Since the Wii's sales may continue to dramatically fall, that will just make it all the more difficult for Nintendo to hit such a lofty target in 10 months. And Nintendo missing their operating income targets has large implications, like management shakeup, Iwata getting fired, products potentially getting discontinued, new directions in overall strategy, etc.

 

[jvm]

Question for y'all. Has there ever been a price cut announced at/around E3?

I can't think of one, but I can't be sure.

 

[Nirolak]

Question for y'all. Has there ever been a price cut announced at/around E3?

I can't think of one, but I can't be sure.

Did the Xbox 360 Slim come with a price cut?

 

[samus4ever]

Did the Xbox 360 Slim come with a price cut?

I don't believe the 4gb one did. It just replaced the 199 arcade model. Nope. Looking it up both models didn't drop the price. It's been sitting at the same price scale since September 2008 excluding the elite which was 399.

 

[metalslimer]

A 3DS level revival would still have the Wii U selling horrible numbers. The 3DS what doubled its baseline at best after the "revival" and recently its been sliding back down to horrible lows it faced before the pricecut. Doubling the sales would put Wii U at 76k a month which is still terrible. No, people seem to be crazy enough to think that Wii U will have a revival much greater than the 3DS ever saw. This is why people think that a revival is not going to happen unless your idea of a revival is selling 50-60k a month because Wii U hasn't even reached its lowest point yet.

 

[jvm]

Did the Xbox 360 Slim come with a price cut?

As samus4ever points out, that was not a price cut. It was a value shift. I see it as Microsoft shaking off the stigma of the RROD fiasco and remaking their console to make it seem more valuable for the same price.

 

[Aquamarine]

I was just looking through some data... and I noticed something interesting.

Apparently, it took the PS2 almost the entirety of two console generations and nearly 11 years of being on the market before having such a horrid April that matches / underperforms compared to the Wii U's April 2013 sales.

 

[specialguy]

At the rate 360 sales are slowing, it's really gonna struggle to surpass Wii.

 

[Daingurse]

I was just looking through some data... and I noticed something interesting.

Apparently, it took the PS2 almost the entirety of two console generations and nearly 11 years of being on the market before having such a horrid April that matches / underperforms compared to the Wii U's April 2013 sales.

Good Lord, the PS2 was such a juggernaut.

 

[Celine]

Question for y'all. Has there ever been a price cut announced at/around E3?

I can't think of one, but I can't be sure.

"around E3" meaning late May/early June, I can think of the 32/64 bit generation (E3 '96):
http://vgsales.wikia.com/wiki/Price_cuts

http://www.ign.com/wikis/e3/E3_1996

 

[MrCookiepants]

I was just looking through some data... and I noticed something interesting.

Apparently, it took the PS2 almost the entirety of two console generations and nearly 11 years of being on the market before having such a horrid April that matches / underperforms compared to the Wii U's April 2013 sales.

:lol

It's beyond embarrassing at this point.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

At the rate 360 sales are slowing, it's really gonna struggle to surpass Wii.

I called you mad almost two years ago for even thinking it might, then I started to believe it as well and now you're backing off?

If it hasn't by this December it will by early next year.

I think 360 will still have one really great December left.

 

[michaelius]

With that $100 SKU more than one probably.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

With that $100 SKU more than one probably.

I still think that is more dependent on Infinity uptake. If Infinity just owns the market? I can see 360 going out fairly quick.

If Infinity adoption is slow or out of price range for the mass market? I can see 360 having a great three years against it.

 

[SmokyDave]

A 3DS level revival would still have the Wii U selling horrible numbers. The 3DS what doubled its baseline at best after the "revival" and recently its been sliding back down to horrible lows it faced before the pricecut. Doubling the sales would put Wii U at 76k a month which is still terrible. No, people seem to be crazy enough to think that Wii U will have a revival much greater than the 3DS ever saw. This is why people think that a revival is not going to happen unless your idea of a revival is selling 50-60k a month because Wii U hasn't even reached its lowest point yet.

That's a good point. I don't think it's clear to many just how big of a hole the Wii-U needs to dig itself out of.

 

[Westlo]

Anyone who expected Injustice to bomb underestimated the power that the DC license currently has.

Shouldn't you wait for numbers before saying that? Being #1 means jackshit if you still sold fuck all. What if it got to #1 by selling 300k? Which is like what, a 900k drop off from MK9's opening month?

 

[liger05]

A 3DS level revival would still have the Wii U selling horrible numbers. The 3DS what doubled its baseline at best after the "revival" and recently its been sliding back down to horrible lows it faced before the pricecut. Doubling the sales would put Wii U at 76k a month which is still terrible. No, people seem to be crazy enough to think that Wii U will have a revival much greater than the 3DS ever saw. This is why people think that a revival is not going to happen unless your idea of a revival is selling 50-60k a month because Wii U hasn't even reached its lowest point yet.

That is very true and the exactly the same with the Vita. People will get excited if either see there sales double from what they are now but the reality is those numbers would still be awful.

Both need a miracle to start shifting even 100k average a month.

 

[pieatorium]

Shouldn't you wait for numbers before saying that? Being #1 means jackshit if you still sold fuck all. What if it got to #1 by selling 300k? Which is like what, a 900k drop off from MK9's opening month?

it's over 600k at least not sure if we got a proper number yet

 

[MrCookiepants]

Shouldn't you wait for numbers before saying that? Being #1 means jackshit if you still sold fuck all. What if it got to #1 by selling 300k? Which is like what, a 900k drop off from MK9's opening month?

MK9 did about 900k. It'll still be a big dropoff for Injustice.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

That's a good point. I don't think it's clear to many just how big of a hole the Wii-U needs to dig itself out of.

I think it would have had to sell 3x as many units to match the GCN's first April.

I'm not exact sure on that though.

 

[thepotatoman]

Question for y'all. Has there ever been a price cut announced at/around E3?

I can't think of one, but I can't be sure.

The gamecube's first price drop got announced the day before its first E3 press conference on the market in 2002.

Actually with Wii U/Gamecube analogies it's been kind of fun reading how it was like for the system at the exact same point in life that the Wii U is in.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/tech/news/2002/05/20/nintendo-price-cut.htm

http://www.gamespot.com/news/e3-2002-nintendo-press-conference-2866799

So at it's first E3 Gamecube had a price drop and showed Mario Sunshine, Metroid Prime, LoZ Wind Waker, F-Zero GX, Animal Crossing, Star Fox Adventures, Resident Evil 0, and Eternal Darkness along with at least 5 other exclusives that probably aren't worth mentioning. You'd think if Wii U wanted to do better than the Gamecube, that'd be the absolute minimum to aim for just to keep up.

 

[metalslimer]

To go along with the 3DS post, the PS3 did not even double its average sales after its "revival". The PS3 was also 600 dollars with not many games the public cared about. At this point the Wii U would need to quintuple it's sales to reach the lowest month PS3 sold in 2008, a year where it was mocked endlessly and said to be doomed. Even doubling its sales wouldn't bring it to the lowest 2007 sales. I said that Sony shouldn't even bother with a pricecut for Vita because its over, but at this point Nintendo should just wait it out until they aren't losing money with a pricecut to even consider it because they will just destroy their financials for what history suggests would be a minimal gain.

 

[jcm]

Like I said before, there's slop in the numbers. But feel free to suggest improvements.

It's entirely possible that ASPs changed a lot.

I used these numbers and these jvm estimates for lat year to calculate the YOY changes. They are pretty dire. Also did comps to consoles for 2006 (one new machine released, two due at the end of the year) and handhelds 2007 (25-30 months since xDS release, the PSV comp isn't as good, but it probably doesn't matter since it's basically rounding error at this point).

YOY Comps
      2013   2012    % Change
360   130K   236K    -44.92%
PS3   102K   175K    -41.71%
3DS   114K   125K     -8.80%
WIU   39K    -
NDS   40K    80K     -50.00%
WII   45K    91K     -50.55%
PSV   15K    75K     -80.00%
PSP   5K     15K     -66.66%

Family
MS   130K    236K    -44.92%
SNE  122K    265K    -53.96%
Nin  238K    296K    -19.58%

Hnd  169K    280K    -39.64%
Cns  316K    502K    -37.05%

Gen over Gen
Console
     2006    2013    % Change
360  295K
PS2  207K
XBX   39K
GCN   38K
TOT  579K    316K    -45.42%

Handheld
     2007    2013    % Change
NDS  471K
PSP  183K
GBA   84K
TOT  738K    169K    -77.10%

 

[jvm]

On phone, sorry.

Column is up:
http://gamasutra.com/view/news/1925...w_consoles_but_oldgen_surprisingly_viable.php

As usual, appreciate constructive feedback.

 

[ascii42]

I was just looking through some data... and I noticed something interesting.

Apparently, it took the PS2 almost the entirety of two console generations and nearly 11 years of being on the market before having such a horrid April that matches / underperforms compared to the Wii U's April 2013 sales.

PS2 sales went up from 2008 to 2009? Good lord.

 

[jcm]

On phone, sorry.

Column is up:
http://gamasutra.com/view/news/1925...w_consoles_but_oldgen_surprisingly_viable.php

As usual, appreciate constructive feedback.

Nice article, but I think you dropped a "not" in your thesis:

Let me offer an alternative read on the situation. I think that the older market is healthier than most observers are giving it credit for. And I think that the challenges recent launches have faced are indicative of the reception that the PlayStation 4 and next Xbox will encounter. Rather, the market is signaling that it is ready for a new generation alongside a healthy tail for the outgoing systems.

 

[jvm]

Nice article, but I think you dropped a "not" in your thesis:

Let me offer an alternative read on the situation. I think that the older market is healthier than most observers are giving it credit for. And I think that the challenges recent launches have faced are indicative of the reception that the PlayStation 4 and next Xbox will encounter. Rather, the market is signaling that it is ready for a new generation alongside a healthy tail for the outgoing systems.

hopefully now fixed by editors. Thanks!

 

[Madouu]

Great article. I definitely agree with the price cuts part and their effect on current hardware.

Less important but I just wanted to say that I happen to be in that overlap of consumers that will decide between a ps3 or a nextbox/ps4 depending on pricing and games.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Very good column as per usual. (I think it could actually warrant a thread in itself.)

It will be very interesting to see how Sony and Microsoft move on price with both their current and next gen systems.

Although, I am curious how Pachter gets to a potential launch price of $300-350 for the new systems, or $400 at a profit. That would frankly astound me.

 

[jvm]

Very good column as per usual. (I think it could actually warrant a thread in itself.)

It will be very interesting to see how Sony and Microsoft move on price with both their current and next gen systems.

Although, I am curious how Pachter gets to a potential launch price of $300-350 for the new systems, or $400 at a profit. That would frankly astound me.

Sure, new thread is fine by me. Go nuts.

As for the pricing, here's a summary. Without knowing full specs yet, Pachter theorizes $60-$70 CPU/GPU, HDD for $50, everything else $150, and distribution/retail adding $30-$40.

 

[Aquamarine]

Okay, finally, we have some more "public data" to report.

A SMBC Nikko Securities analyst apparently posted another report on May 17th, 2013--which for the life of me, I can't find--but the numbers were allegedly tallied on 2ch.

Some basic Q&A about it.

Q: Are these numbers 100% accurate?
A: No, but they are "as accurate" as we're going to get without further leaks.

Q: Where's your proof that it's accurate?
A: All of the numbers fall within PR / PR Math / Creamsugar's hints, and Creamsugar has indicated on a previous NPD thread that these reports are 'at least' pretty accurate

Q: So what?
A: Look, I wouldn't be posting these numbers if I didn't think they were accurate or in the realm of being accurate.

Q: Where do they come from?
A: Anonymous posts on 2chan

Q: Are they good enough to be put in the OP as official data?
A: No. Because they were posted anonymously, these numbers are rumors and should naturally be taken with a grain of salt.



Here are the alleged numbers for April 2013 NPD:

Hardware - 493,000
3DS - 113,000
Wii - 42,000
Wii U - 36,000
PS3 - 100,000
360 - 130,000
Software - 6,459,000

Injustice: Gods Among Us - 760,000


Original, anonymous post from 2chan:

NPD 4月（出所: SMBC日興証券アナリストレポート 2013年5月17日Opening Bell）
Hardware 493K（▲39%)
・3DS 113K（▼11%）
・Wii 42K（▲53%）
・Wii U 36K
・PS3 100K（▲42%）
・360 130K（▲45%）

SoftWare 6.459K（▲26%）
・INJUSTICE: GODS AMONG US: 760K

 

[Lexxism]

Why there's no vita?

 

[Aquamarine]

Why there's no vita?

Maybe because the analyst didn't report on it? That seems like the most likely reason, anyway.

But again, these numbers are rumors.

 

[metalslimer]

Crazy how close the 3Ds is to its low back at 250 with no games. Animal Crossing should provide a reprieve though

 

[Mpl90]

Crazy how close the 3Ds is to its low back at 250 with no games. Animal Crossing should provide a reprieve though

It'll certainly will. Looking at preorder charts, it's high. Yes, even on Amazon, if you consider that right now the top 100 is heavily influenced by digital deals, then it's an heavily distorted view on things. And that's a plus given its "mass" nature and the low price.

 

[Aquamarine]

Crazy how close the 3Ds is to its low back at 250 with no games. Animal Crossing should provide a reprieve though

Unfortunately, Animal Crossing might not do that much good for the 3DS's barren May release schedule in the May NPD reporting month.

We may very well see the system flirt with its 94K July 2011 all-time low before a June Animal Crossing boost.

 

[Hero of Legend]

3DS ＞ PS3

Top 10
luigi
lego
pokemon
nsmb2
mk7
fea
sm3dl
smt:dssh
mh3u > 21k
pmss

ki:u LTD > 400k

Did you post an updated Wii U LTD? Is the above for the month or LTD (should be month since MH should be way above that LTD)?

I want to know where Sonic Gens 3DS, Sonic Racing 3DS and Sonic Racing Wii U are LTD.

Edit: Of course it's for the month, Weegee wouldn't be #1 LTD doy.

 

[allan-bh]

Last month 2ch numbers are real, so I think that's real too.

Injustice: Gods Among Us had amazing sales.

 

[RocBase]

Just came here for the Injustice numbers. And hot damn, so glad it did really well! Hope this is a start to a great franchise.

 

[James Sawyer Ford]

I wonder if during June Sony can actually go for the combo breaker and claim the top console spot in the US.

100k vs. 130k isn't a huge difference, and with The Last of Us releasing early in the month, that may be enough to push more units than the 360.

 

[Nirolak]

Okay, finally, we have some more "public data" to report.

A SMBC Nikko Securities analyst apparently posted another report on May 17th, 2013--which for the life of me, I can't find--but the numbers were allegedly tallied on 2ch.

Some basic Q&A about it.

Q: Are these numbers 100% accurate?
A: No, but they are "as accurate" as we're going to get without further leaks.

Q: Where's your proof that it's accurate?
A: All of the numbers fall within PR / PR Math / Creamsugar's hints, and Creamsugar has indicated on a previous NPD thread that these reports are 'at least' pretty accurate

Q: So what?
A: Look, I wouldn't be posting these numbers if I didn't think they were accurate or in the realm of being accurate.

Q: Where do they come from?
A: Anonymous posts on 2chan

Q: Are they good enough to be put in the OP as official data?
A: No. Because they were posted anonymously, these numbers are rumors and should naturally be taken with a grain of salt.



Here are the alleged numbers for April 2013 NPD:

Hardware - 493,000
3DS - 113,000
Wii - 42,000
Wii U - 36,000
PS3 - 100,000
360 - 130,000
Software - 6,459,000

Injustice: Gods Among Us - 760,000


Original, anonymous post from 2chan:

Since I've heard that the Wii U is closer to 35K than 40K these numbers might be our most accurate estimate yet.