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[Katana_Strikes]

~650K is more likely. Around 500K for US+JPN as you said. Europe for the first three months of the year was ~120K. Probably another 25K or so from April, maybe less, considering Europe seems to have taken to the system even less than the other two regions. There's other countries outside these general territories though I suppose, 700K is likely a maximum.

Yeah sounds about right. 750k being rather generous. In fact to put it in a little perspective, the PS3 alone in the US for the first 4 months of this year looks to have more than outsold the WiiU in the same time frame on a WW basis (~780k US PS3 sales vs ~700k tops WW WiiU sales).

Why pick an arbitrary timeframe to represent the entire situation?

And goddamn, PS3 sales are shitty.

Sony better hope PS4 launches with a bang or else it's another $4 Billion in the hole for them.

Because I wanted to collect the sales that it has so far done this year, as well as represent the sales it has done after the launch buzz died down. Or fell of a fucking cliff in WiiU terms.

As for the PS3... well see my comment above at just how bad that light puts the WiiU in...

 

[ascii42]

Why pick an arbitrary timeframe to represent the entire situation.

A calendar year is an arbitrary time frame?

 

[pieatorium]

Why pick an arbitrary timeframe to represent the entire situation?

And goddamn, PS3 sales are shitty.

Sony better hope PS4 launches with a bang or else it's another $4 Billion in the hole for them.

It's the post holiday period not an arbitrary period. The launch was goodish, nov fine dec had people on alert already though since there was no mom growth.

The sales have gone to complete shit since and all the cheering of "better than PS3!" is over.

The PS3 was laughed at and called a dead system during this same period of it's lifetime here on gaf and it was selling at least twice as many consoles a month.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Why pick an arbitrary timeframe to represent the entire situation?

Because two of those months were holiday months, and one was launch month.

That tends to skew results.

The ensuing months are death cries.

I still think they'll be able to carve a sizable niche for themselves. But they strayed too far from Wii pricing, stayed too close to the Wii name, and have released no defining title for the platform.

Years 2-5 will be entirely on Nintendo's back. Along with the occasional 3rd party title. I do think it will be enough for them to clip past the GCN and N64, but this first year will be looked back on (at the minimum) as the worst misuse of a year headstart in gaming.

Still has the potential to be "The home console that turned Nintendo handheld exclusive." but with the volatility in that market as well I'm not sure that would be as safe a bet as it would have been a generation ago.

 

[electroplankton]

Which is why I don't get the glee at Vita's failure. How can people who like games be happy that there will be fewer dedicated game platforms in the future? Sony isn't going to fund expensive risky games as a 3rd party in the portable space. Of course, the same question can be asked of those that are happy about Wii U failing. Nintendo as a third party would mean fewer games.

Games weren't bad during GBA-era, and we had just one platform.

 

[Clear]

I wonder how many of the 360 sales are from the reduced initial outlay plus XBL for two years packages? They are still doing that aren't they?

 

[SmokyDave]

Games weren't bad during GBA-era, and we had just one platform.

Things have moved on somewhat since then. If Nintendo are the only game in town, we can kiss goodbye to years of progress in hardware and services.

Fortunately, iOS and Android ain't going anywhere.

 

[electroplankton]

Anyway, now I understand why Nintendo is going to set a dedicated conference for US partners. They didn't want the general public to see Reggie crying on his knees, begging for more time.

Things have moved on somewhat since then. If Nintendo are the only game in town, we can kiss goodbye to years of progress in hardware and services.

Fortunately, iOS and Android ain't going anywhere.

Indeed there's still a lot of competition, even without Vita in the picture.
This is good for Nintendo, its output on 3DS is really top-notch.

 

[specialguy]

It's the post holiday period not an arbitrary period. The launch was goodish, nov fine dec had people on alert already though since there was no mom growth.

The sales have gone to complete shit since and all the cheering of "better than PS3!" is over.

The PS3 was laughed at and called a dead system during this same period of it's lifetime here on gaf and it was selling at least twice as many consoles a month.

and at 599 as everybody has pointed out a billion times

 

[SmokyDave]

Indeed there's still a lot of competition, even without Vita in the picture.
This is good for Nintendo, its output on 3DS is really top-notch.

Let's just hope the competition pushes them to deliver on the hardware front next time. They can put out as many games as they like but when I hate using the device, I ain't playing 'em. Hopefully the efficiency of the Wii-U is a sign of good things to come. I'm completely on board for the idea of a single Nintendo hybrid machine, that'd be ideal for me.

 

[dragonfart28]

Because two of those months were holiday months, and one was launch month.

That tends to skew results.

It's a more disingenuous picture to only include the bad months instead of both bad and good months together.

Also, I'm pretty sure Nintendo is not losing anywhere near the same amount of money Sony did with the PS3. In fact, they may be profiting already on Wii U.

GAF can clamour about third party support all it wants, but if Sony repeats what it did with the PS3, then don't expect them to be around after next gen - regardless of how many units PS4 sells.

Nintendo, on the other hand, has the freedom to experiment and fuck up a few generations.

 

[Captain Tuttle]

An industry can expand into new markets without positively affecting more traditional markets. Goddamnit people, you're not business geniuses, believing something fiercely doesn't automatically make it true. It's possible to take in the measure of the facts and decide there isn't enough evidence to make a definitive conclusion. It's possible to argue in defense of a theory rather than a supposed fact.

There are more "gamers" today than there were in 2006 but that doesn't mean the console market hasn't contracted. And I'm not even saying it has, I'm just acknowledging it's a very real possibility based on the last few years.

Apparently neither are Nintendo

 

[Magicpaint]

Let's just hope the competition pushes them to deliver on the hardware front next time. They can put out as many games as they like but when I hate using the device, I ain't playing 'em. Hopefully the efficiency of the Wii-U is a sign of good things to come. I'm completely on board for the idea of a single Nintendo hybrid machine, that'd be ideal for me.

Yeah look at what pushing hardware did to the Vita Face it: in the portable market, hardware power is the last thing of importance. It's about affordability of hardware and software, like the GBA and the DS. Vita and even 3DS fail at this.

A hybrid machine is a terrible idea and would be the worst of both worlds. I'm not even sure there's any real demand for it.

 

[electroplankton]

Let's just hope the competition pushes them to deliver on the hardware front next time. They can put out as many games as they like but when I hate using the device, I ain't playing 'em. Hopefully the efficiency of the Wii-U is a sign of good things to come. I'm completely on board for the idea of a single Nintendo hybrid machine, that'd be ideal for me.

I just hope they keep delivering top-notch gaming experiences. If I want home console experiences (i.e. graphics, physics, etc.), I will buy an home console.

Imo, they must keep the clamshell design and the dual screens, the features so far in an handheld device.

 

[Mpl90]

I just hope they keep delivering top-notch gaming experiences. If I want home console experiences (i.e. graphics, physics, etc.), I will buy an home console.

Imo, they must keep the clamshell design and the dual screens, the features so far in an handheld device.

Certainly next Nintendo hardware, pure handheld or hybrid, must muntain the dual screen setup. There's even a way to evolve it even more: two screens of the same size, attached to each other, both touch (possibly, the upper screen both stereoscopic 3D and touch), so it could have most of the mobile lineup since the console, rotated...would become one single touch screen, and then mobile developers aren't forced to port their iOS / Android titles without reworking on controls for the two screen setup, leaving to them the choice to do quick ports or sort-of-remakes.

 

[ksamedi]

Certainly next Nintendo hardware, pure handheld or hybrid, must muntain the dual screen setup. There's even a way to evolve it even more: two screens of the same size, attached to each other, both touch (possibly, the upper screen both stereoscopic 3D and touch), so it could have most of the mobile lineup since the console, rotated...would become one single touch screen, and then mobile developers aren't forced to port their iOS / Android titles without reworking on controls for the two screen setup, leaving to them the choice to do quick ports or sort-of-remakes.

Hybrid is not the way to go. If the hybrid doesnt sell, then they will have cash problems. Having a console and handheld reduces risk. A Hybrid solution is just too risky.

 

[maabus1999]

So with the data from Japan, and some assumptions for Europe (that it isn't purchasing more Wii U's then NA/Japan) I think we can safely say now the Wii U is selling under 100K units a month now world wide.

Nintendo will be lucky to sell 3 million units this FY at this rate. They need to revise their yearly forecast soon I think.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

It's a more disingenuous picture to only include the bad months instead of both bad and good months together.

I wanted to collate the data for just this year alone to see how it was faring outside of it's launch months (which is when all the "buzz" was), so you get a good picture of that period. We've already had the launch aligned months in graphs to show the overall picture, which isn't a pretty picture anyways, even including the good months. If the WiiU had a good January or whatever month this year, then I would have included that too. It didn't so I can't include any good months this year, because there simply weren't any.

So with the data from Japan, and some assumptions for Europe (that it isn't purchasing more Wii U's then NA/Japan) I think we can safely say now the Wii U is selling under 100K units a month now world wide.

Nintendo will be lucky to sell 3 million units this FY at this rate. They need to revise their yearly forecast soon I think.

Yeah it's around that currently. Certainly it's not selling more than that.

 

[SmokyDave]

Yeah look at what pushing hardware did to the Vita Face it: in the portable market, hardware power is the last thing of importance. It's about affordability of hardware and software, like the GBA and the DS. Vita and even 3DS fail at this.

You're probably right and I think it's a real shame. For me, smartphones fulfill the role of the 'old style' handheld, and mobile technology is now at a place where shit hot hardware ought to be the rule, not the exception.

A hybrid machine is a terrible idea and would be the worst of both worlds. I'm not even sure there's any real demand for it.

There's no demand for their console and diminishing demand for their handheld. They don't appear to be able to produce enough games to support both. It might not be a matter of choice.

I just hope they keep delivering top-notch gaming experiences. If I want home console experiences (i.e. graphics, physics, etc.), I will buy an home console.

I want hardware powerful enough to deliver on developers visions, and an online infrastructure and account system from the present day backing it up. I can't stand the idea of always being 5 years behind the curve. I want the same 'quality' I get from a home console in a handheld, no excuses. It can be done.

Imo, they must keep the clamshell design and the dual screens, the features so far in an handheld device.

Agreed on this. Two 720p screens and better construction material and standards next time.

 

[jcm]

I missed this whole thread. Is there a 3DS number somewhere? And is there a post with YOY comps for everybody?

Having to dig through the thread to find the numbers is terrible. Fuck NPD. I really wish someone would start a competing company.

 

[SniperHunter]

Xbox 360 top selling console for 21 months in a row. DAMMNNNNNNN

 

[michaelius]

I still think the only fightning chance handhelds had was Vita hardware with 3DS software support but since it didn't happen we are now looking at future totaly dominated by smartphones with F2P games.

 

[dragonfart28]

I wanted to collate the data for just this year alone to see how it was faring outside of it's launch months (which is when all the "buzz" was), so you get a good picture of that period.

Which is fine, but it doesn't really mean anything.

 

[Father_Brain]

Arkham Origins: Blackgate seems mass market. Should sell on the name alone.

Define "sell." I doubt it'll even break 500K worldwide across both platforms, though I have to imagine it'd at least be profitable if it sells even close to that.

 

[Magicpaint]

You're probably right and I think it's a real shame. For me, smartphones fulfill the role of the 'old style' handheld, and mobile technology is now at a place where shit hot hardware ought to be the rule, not the exception.

The question is can it be packaged at mass market price?

There's no demand for their console and diminishing demand for their handheld. They don't appear to be able to produce enough games to support both. It might not be a matter of choice.

Hey, it's better to keep having options than throwing all their eggs in one basket that is completely unproven. I mean that's the highest possible risk they can take going forward. Nuking the console business and focusing squarely on a handheld, I'd argue, is even a safer bet.

I still think the only fightning chance handhelds had was Vita hardware with 3DS software support but since it didn't happen we are now looking at future totaly dominated by smartphones with F2P games.

Umm no? The 3DS would be doing worse with even more expensive hardware. A cheaper 3DS (both HW and SW) with 3DS software support is the fighting chance.

 

[metalslimer]

I still think the only fightning chance handhelds had was Vita hardware with 3DS software support but since it didn't happen we are now looking at future totaly dominated by smartphones with F2P games.

So basically if Nintendo released Vita, because Nintendo's games are the only thign propping up the 3DS in the west. Well at the rate their going the 3DS will be replaced much quicker than the DS was. If Pokemon underperforms fails to ignite 3DS in the west, Nintendo is basically going to have to accept their mediocre at best positio in the west with the 3DS. As of now no way they reach 18 million shipped 3DS with constant YoY declines without a price drop+2nd revision.

Anyway, the western market doesn't care how powerful the platform is. They are done with dedicated handhelds and making things more expensive wil worsen the situation not help it.

 

[Father_Brain]

I wonder if Injustice has Warner questioning Arkham Origins; or whether currently announced projects are so far along that they may as well complete and release them regardless of knowing how poor the sales will be.

Probably to some extent, but if WBIE and Ubisoft weren't inclined to give Nintendo at least some benefit of the doubt, I doubt they'd have announced those multiplats in the first place.

That said, I can't say I'd be completely shocked if any of B:AO/SC:BL/WD/ACIV were cancelled for the platform, not with sales like these. On WBIE's end, Scribblenauts and Lego Marvel are almost certainly safe, as they skew towards what's perceived as the traditional Nintendo console audience.

 

[metalslimer]

Wii U's games aren't going to get cancelled this year. They probably cost them pretty little to port and coming into E3 would be a waste to cancel on the off chance they do well. Next year we could see Wii U literally become the Nintendo machine when Warner, Activision, and Ubisoft pull support.

 

[electroplankton]

I want hardware powerful enough to deliver on developers visions, and an online infrastructure and account system from the present day backing it up. I can't stand the idea of always being 5 years behind the curve. I want the same 'quality' I get from a home console in a handheld, no excuses. It can be done.

Don't we have the same quality on handheld? 3DS has the best Resident Evil in years, one of the best Kingdom Hearts of the series, a top-notch Fire Emblem, an incredibly good Animal Crossing, two Monster Hunter, Luigi's Mansion which is quite better than the original one, etc.

As for developers visions, I think games like Bravely Default, Fantasy Life, Shin Megami Tensei IV, Super Mario 3D Land and others speak for themselves.

Then, you can have a much more powerful hardware, without having games that really push it, and that can be easily done on 3DS; and you know why? Because people who buy handheld doesn't look for graphics, hence it's a waste of money putting effort in the visual aspect.

 

[michaelius]

Probably to some extent, but if WBIE and Ubisoft weren't inclined to give Nintendo at least some benefit of the doubt, I doubt they'd have announced those multiplats in the first place.

That said, I can't say I'd be completely shocked if any of B:AO/SC:BL/WD/ACIV were cancelled for the platform, not with sales like these.

WB and Ubi would know from Nintendo when price cut is comming so that's probably only thing keeping those projects not cancelled.

But i can't see any company greenlightning games for 2014-2015 with sales like this.

 

[ascii42]

So with the data from Japan, and some assumptions for Europe (that it isn't purchasing more Wii U's then NA/Japan) I think we can safely say now the Wii U is selling under 100K units a month now world wide.

Nintendo will be lucky to sell 3 million units this FY at this rate. They need to revise their yearly forecast soon I think.

What was their yearly forecast for the WiiU?

 

[stryke]

Probably to some extent, but if WBIE and Ubisoft weren't inclined to give Nintendo at least some benefit of the doubt, I doubt they'd have announced those multiplats in the first place.

This is the same studio that ported Arkham City to Wii U. Unlike the Frostbite situation, it seems they've done a lot of ground work already working with the Wii U and are comfortable enough to support it. If there had been no AC on Wii U, I'd be inclined to think Origins would not have been announced for the platform.

 

[metalslimer]

What was their yearly forecast for the WiiU?

9 million. I can't see retailers even ordering that many Wii U's without a massive price cut so Nintendo's holiday revival plans could be dead before they even start.

 

[electroplankton]

9 million. I can't see retailers even ordering that many Wii U's without a massive price cut so Nintendo's holiday revival plans could be dead before they even start.

Indeed. I can see it doing fairly well with Mario and Zelda, but 9 million is too much. Maybe 5 million.

edit: fairly well compared to now, of course

 

[SmokyDave]

The question is can it be packaged at mass market price?

Next time around? I'd certainly hope so. Smartphones and tablets are only going to get better, so off-the-shelf parts should be cheap 'n' plentiful.

Hey, it's better to keep having options than throwing all their eggs in one basket that is completely unproven. I mean that's the highest possible risk they can take going forward. Nuking the console business and focusing squarely on a handheld, I'd argue, is even a safer bet.

Umm no? The 3DS would be doing worse with even more expensive hardware. A cheaper 3DS (both HW and SW) with 3DS software support is the fighting chance.

I'd be OK with 'em focusing solely on handhelds if the handheld in question was powerful enough.

Don't we have the same quality on handheld? 3DS has the best Resident Evil in years, one of the best Kingdom Hearts of the series, a top-notch Fire Emblem, an incredibly good Animal Crossing, two Monster Hunter, Luigi's Mansion which is quite better than the original one, etc.

As for developers visions, I think games like Bravely Default, Fantasy Life, Shin Megami Tensei IV, Super Mario 3D Land and others speak for themselves.

Then, you can have a much more powerful hardware, without having games that really push it, and that can be easily done on 3DS; and you know why? Because people who buy handheld doesn't look for graphics, hence it's a waste of money putting effort in the visual aspect.

I think we have very, very different priorities and standards. You seem far more impressed with 3DS games than I ever have been, and far less impressed with the Vita than I am. Do you own a Vita? I always assumed you did, but the bolded makes me think I'm wrong. Nothing on the Vita could be done in the same form on the 3DS due to the wildly different display capabilities, which are very important to me personally.

In addition, I don't really care what 'the masses' want from a handheld, I'm talking about what I want. It might not be economically viable, but that's why I'm so glad smartphone / tablet gaming emerged. Portable gaming that moves with the times.

 

[Forkball]

Kind of surprising the Wii U to NSMBU ratio isn't 1:1. I mean who bought the Wii U and thought, "Nah, I'll skip Mario."

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Kind of surprising the Wii U to NSMBU ratio isn't 1:1. I mean who bought the Wii U and thought, "Nah, I'll skip Mario."

*raises hand*

 

[metalslimer]

Kind of surprising the Wii U to NSMBU ratio isn't 1:1. I mean who bought the Wii U and thought, "Nah, I'll skip Mario."

People who decided they were happy with Nintendoland. And the people who decided to make Wii U their 3rd party platform.
Edit: Neither of the current portables impress me to be honest. I don;t like the 3ds's gimmick, and wish Vita had tried something better than 3g and rear touchscreen

 

[electroplankton]

I think we have very, very different priorities and standards. You seem far more impressed with 3DS games than I ever have been, and far less impressed with the Vita than I am. Do you own a Vita? I always assumed you did, but the bolded makes me think I'm wrong.

I don't own a Vita, but I played with one. It just doesn't have game I like (there are some, but not enough to make me buy the device). And I was crazy for PSP; but there's nothing I was playing on PSP: Ace Combat, Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Monster Hunter, clever Japanese games like My Summer Holiday, Portable Resort, etc.

Anyway, I just like good Japanese games, and so far, 3DS is really promising, it's having what I was mainly playing on PS2 and DS / PSP.

 

[Mpl90]

People who decided they were happy with Nintendoland. And the people who decided to make Wii U their 3rd party platform.

So, one hundred people, then.

 

[Nirolak]

Well, Ed Boon is happy with Injustice's sales: https://twitter.com/noobde/status/335211757721235456

 

[SmokyDave]

I don't own a Vita, but I played with one. It just doesn't have game I like (there are some, but not enough to make me buy the device). And I was crazy for PSP; but there's nothing I was playing on PSP: Ace Combat, Kingdom Hearts, Final Fantasy, Metal Gear Solid, Monster Hunter, clever Japanese games like My Summer Holiday, Portable Resort, etc.

Anyway, I just like good Japanese games, and so far, 3DS is really promising, it's having what I was mainly playing on PS2 and DS / PSP.

Yeah, fair enough. I think the thing that is important to me (predominantly the visual fidelity and two analogues) isn't anywhere near as important to you, so on that basis I can see how you'd distill the gameplay elements of most Vita games and say '3DS could do this too'.

I reckon you'll dig 'Hohokum' on Vita. Seems to be up your alley.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

Xbox 360 top selling console for 21 months in a row. DAMMNNNNNNN

This is why I still have a hard time believing PS3 and X360 are neck to neck in world wide sales. Unless Japan and Europe make up THAT much of a difference. Also, current generation hardware is still too expensive. Both consoles should be $100-$200 tops since we are at the end of the generation. That is one reason the sales are lackluster. As for Wii U.......uh....I don't now what to say. Essentially, it is an PS3/X360, but with way less games so that explains the situation somewhat.

 

[electroplankton]

Yeah, fair enough. I think the thing that is important to me (predominantly the visual fidelity and two analogues) isn't anywhere near as important to you, so on that basis I can see how you'd distill the gameplay elements of most Vita games and say '3DS could do this too'.

I reckon you'll dig 'Hohokum' on Vita. Seems to be up your alley.

I have a PS3.

 

[SuperSonic1305]

Amazing that 360 has been $199 for almost 4 years and PS3 has yet to hit it.

 

[darkside31337]

This is why I still have a hard time believing PS3 and X360 are neck to neck in world wide sales.

USA isn't the only country on the planet...

Obviously a drastically different story in Japan, most of Europe (pretty much all of it outside of the UK) and most of the world in general.

 

[metalslimer]

This is why I still have a hard time believing PS3 and X360 are neck to neck in world wide sales.

PS3 outsells 360 in Europe and 360 doesnt exist in Japan. What's hard to believe? If not for the 1 year headstary PS3 would have a sizable lead.

 

[michaelius]

This is why I still have a hard time believing PS3 and X360 are neck to neck in world wide sales.

There's this thing called Europe - they like PS3 there.

 

[pieatorium]

This is why I still have a hard time believing PS3 and X360 are neck to neck in world wide sales.

360 doesn't sell anything in Japan and PS3 is above 360 in most of PAL.

 

[Katana_Strikes]

This is why I still have a hard time believing PS3 and X360 are neck to neck in world wide sales.

There's less than 30k between them this month in the US. It only takes Sony 2 weeks in Japan to eliminate that lead, and then there's European numbers in Sony's favour too.