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[donny2112]

As I mentioned in the hardware prediction thread, it looks like we'll get to do some official software predictions this month. Predictions close Wednesday (tomorrow) at 4 p.m. EDT. That's the same time that the hardware predictions close.

Instead of picking a random top ten, though, we are going to have ten games listed, and you'll predict the sales for those ten games. You must use the format posted for your software predictions to be counted. Depending on the amount of responses, the results may be hand-collated this month, but as the responses increase, variability in what people use for a game title would be too much for a parser. (e.g. MP3:C, MP3: Corruption, Metroid Prime 3) That is why you'll have to strictly use a parser-like format when doing these software predictions.

Points System

1. 10 points * (percentage of correct units for each game); anything over 100% difference = 0 points. Maximum points: 100

Suggestions on what else points could be awarded for concerning software (remember, this isn't necessarily the top ten for the month) are welcome. For this month, we'll just use #1, though.


September Software Predictions Games/Format

[360 Bioshock]
[360 Halo 3]
[360 Madden 08]
[360 Stranglehold]
[PS3 Heavenly Sword]
[PS3 Warhawk]
[PS2 Madden 08]
[NDS MySims]
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass]
[WII Metroid Prime 3]

Good                       Bad
[360 Bioshock] 123K        [360 Bioshock] 123.5K
[360 Bioshock] 123,000     [360 Bioshock] 123.000
[360 Bioshock] 123000      [360 Bioshock] - 123000
[360 Bioshock] 123456      [360 Bioshock] one-hundred and twenty-three thousand

Important Note:
From sonycowboy, all Halo 3 SKUs will be combined for NPD's publicly released numbers. Keep that in mind when predicting.

The hardware prediction thread is here.

 

[donny2112]

[360 Bioshock] 120K
[360 Halo 3] 2900K
[360 Madden 08] 215K
[360 Stranglehold] 210K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 125K
[PS3 Warhawk] 110K
[PS2 Madden 08] 400K
[NDS MySims] 155K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 200K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 220K

 

[RBH]

[360 Bioshock] 201,000
[360 Halo 3] 2,500,000
[360 Madden 08] 225,000
[360 Stranglehold] 160,000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 165,000
[PS3 Warhawk] 65,000
[PS2 Madden 08] 195,000
[NDS MySims] 85,000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 180,000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 175,000

 

[rakka]

[360 Bioshock] 180k
[360 Halo 3] 2800k
[360 Madden 08] 240k
[360 Stranglehold] 170k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 140k
[PS3 Warhawk] 80k
[PS2 Madden 08] 350k
[NDS MySims] 80k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 190k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 310k

 

[Sviatoslav]

[360 Bioshock] 145k
[360 Halo 3] 2999K
[360 Madden 08] 240K
[360 Stranglehold] 286K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 130K
[PS3 Warhawk] 100K
[PS2 Madden 08] 350K
[NDS MySims] 143K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 225K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 197K

 

[GhaleonEB]

[360 Bioshock] 230,000
[360 Halo 3] 2,900,000
[360 Madden 08] 190,000
[360 Stranglehold] 280,000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 125,000
[PS3 Warhawk] 65,000
[PS2 Madden 08] 225,000
[NDS MySims] 110,000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 390,000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 185,000

I really have no idea. :lol

 

[Kujo]

[360 Bioshock] 150K
[360 Halo 3] 2200K
[360 Madden 08] 250K
[360 Stranglehold] 200K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 200K
[PS3 Warhawk] 120K
[PS2 Madden 08] 300K
[NDS MySims] 100K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 300K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 200K

 

[Beer Monkey]

[360 Halo 3] 2950K
[PS2 Madden 08] 330K
[360 Madden 08] 282K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 220K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 200K
[NDS MySims] 170K
[360 Stranglehold] 170K
[360 Bioshock] 160K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 120K
[PS3 Warhawk] 95K

 

[kefka2030]

[360 Bioshock] 134,000
[360 Halo 3] 3,040,000
[360 Madden 08] 232,000
[360 Stranglehold] 185,000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 147,000
[PS3 Warhawk] 70,000
[PS2 Madden 08] 302,000
[NDS MySims] 83,000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 198,000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 257,000

 

[JJConrad]

The problem with a contest like this is that it is very unlikely that we'll get NPD numbers all the slected titles.

Maybe sonycowboy or michaelpachter will step-up and provide those missing titles ... in which case, I think we should add RE4Wii to the list.

 

[Gadfly]

partial numbers ok?

Man I hate pulling numbers out of our ass for those consoles/games that we don’t give a rat’s ass.

needless to say, the numbers for consoles/games we care about are based on research and scientific facts.

 

[frankthurk]

[360 Halo 3] 2750K
[PS2 Madden 08] 350K
[360 Madden 08] 275K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 180K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 160K
[NDS MySims] 150K
[360 Stranglehold] 140K
[360 Bioshock] 190K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 110K
[PS3 Warhawk] 76K

 

[Earthstrike]

[360 Bioshock] 190k
[360 Halo 3] 3700k
[360 Madden 08] 550k
[360 Stranglehold] 130k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 110k
[PS3 Warhawk] 170k
[PS2 Madden 08] 400k
[NDS MySims] 130k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 560k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 220k

 

[donny2112]

The problem with a contest like this is that it is very unlikely that we'll get NPD numbers all the slected titles.

Maybe sonycowboy or michaelpachter will step-up and provide those missing titles ...

If I understand this correctly, sonycowboy will be posting the actual sales for those ten games. It is similar to the simExchange's setup where they pick ten games to "trade," and NPD agreed to get them the software results for those ten games even if it is outside of the monthly top ten.

in which case, I think we should add RE4Wii to the list.

RE4: Wii sold less than 58.6K last month, since it ranked below Warhawk. While this isn't necessarily a predicted top ten, we tried to choose games that would be of interest to most of GAF.

partial numbers ok?

If you don't predict for a game, you'll just get zero points for that game.

 

[Flakster99]

[360 Bioshock] 135k
[360 Halo 3] 3100k
[360 Madden 08] 230k
[360 Stranglehold] 200k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 90k
[PS3 Warhawk] 95k
[PS2 Madden 08] 360k
[NDS MySims] 150k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 300k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 275k

 

[sonycowboy]

The problem with a contest like this is that it is very unlikely that we'll get NPD numbers all the slected titles.

Maybe sonycowboy or michaelpachter will step-up and provide those missing titles ... in which case, I think we should add RE4Wii to the list.

You'll get these numbers. Unfortunately, we can't take requests as NPD won't divulge dozens of titles, but we're looking for titles that are either highly anticipated/hyped or are likely to be chart toppers. And a definite slant to new releases.

There would be more Wii, but the low number of releases this month don't work in it's favor. We could have done Wii Play again, but it's had so many months of releases.

You guys should try this month as:

1) Top performer will get the SW predictor of the month award and be in good shape for the YTD award as well :lol

2) You'll be in the swing of things for next month in which there are going to be even more titles due to the holiday splurge.

3) I'm going to try and provide some basic metrics that we can use in subsequent months. Such as the retail calendar, prior month's sales, franchise prior year sales, % drop for the platform, for the genre, online rankings, official thread sizes, etc. It's an area NOBODY does a good job at, so it'll be interesting to see how GAF fares.

 

[RBH]

You'll get these numbers. Unfortunately, we can't take requests as NPD won't divulge dozens of titles, but we're looking for titles that are either highly anticipated/hyped or are likely to be chart toppers. And a definite slant to new releases.

There would be more Wii, but the low number of releases this month don't work in it's favor. We could have done Wii Play again, but it's had so many months of releases.

Sounds like a good approach.

But if Lair doesn't appear in the Top 10 (and since it's not listed in the OP), we basically won't know how bad it bomba'd since we can't make requests?

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

I don't feel confident enough to predict software, but I do know that I've been looking at the same copies of Metroid Prime behind every time I've come to pick up a game. Prime disappointed at retail from what I can tell.

 

[sonycowboy]

I don't feel confident enough to predict software, but I do know that I've been looking at the same copies of Metroid Prime behind every time I've come to pick up a game. Prime disappointed at retail from what I can tell.

We're likely ALL going to suck early on. In fact, all analysts suck at SW predictions, so we wont' stand out too much. However, with this out there, I do think we'll get better as it's scary how well folks do in the Media Create threads for certain games.

Remember, you can't win if you don't play.

Also, we'll give points for percentage close, so even if you miss it by 50% you get half of the points available for a given title. And if you get their ordinal ranking correct, you get another bonus. I'll give you a hint. Halo 3 will be #1.

 

[speculawyer]

[360 Bioshock] 230K
[360 Halo 3] 2300K
[360 Madden 08] 240K
[360 Stranglehold] 170K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 165K
[PS3 Warhawk] 90K
[PS2 Madden 08] 240K
[NDS MySims] 140K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 260K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 220K

Important Note that bears repeating:
From sonycowboy, all Halo 3 SKUs will be combined for NPD's publicly released numbers. Keep that in mind when predicting.

 

[Adam Blade]

We're likely ALL going to suck early on. In fact, all analysts suck at SW predictions, so we wont' stand out too much. However, with this out there, I do think we'll get better as it's scary how well folks do in the Media Create threads for certain games.

Remember, you can't win if you don't play.

Also, we'll give points for percentage close, so even if you miss it by 50% you get half of the points available for a given title. And if you get their ordinal ranking correct, you get another bonus. I'll give you a hint. Halo 3 will be #1.

spoilerz

 

[andy_lhc]

[360 Bioshock] 185k
[360 Halo 3] 2,900k
[360 Madden 08] 230k
[360 Stranglehold] 250k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 150k
[PS3 Warhawk] 90k
[PS2 Madden 08] 200k
[NDS MySims] 110k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 210k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 180k

 

[Agent Icebeezy]

We're likely ALL going to suck early on. In fact, all analysts suck at SW predictions, so we wont' stand out too much. However, with this out there, I do think we'll get better as it's scary how well folks do in the Media Create threads for certain games.

Remember, you can't win if you don't play.

Also, we'll give points for percentage close, so even if you miss it by 50% you get half of the points available for a given title. And if you get their ordinal ranking correct, you get another bonus. I'll give you a hint. Halo 3 will be #1.

Cool. I'll pay attention to how this goes and then will start with software predictions next month. I want to pay attention to more games locally.

 

[davepoobond]

[360 Bioshock] 50k
[360 Halo 3] 3000k
[360 Madden 08] 300k
[360 Stranglehold] 240k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 150k
[PS3 Warhawk] 100k
[PS2 Madden 08] 350k
[NDS MySims] 50k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 89k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 150k

 

[Sindou_Hikaru20]

[360 Bioshock] 130k
[360 Halo 3] 3000k
[360 Madden 08] 290k
[360 Stranglehold] 200k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 170k
[PS3 Warhawk] 120k
[PS2 Madden 08] 320k
[NDS MySims] 100k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 220k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 190k

 

[JCBossman]

What the Hell:
[360 Bioshock] 160k
[360 Halo 3] 3200k
[360 Madden 08] 360k
[360 Stranglehold] 140k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 160k
[PS3 Warhawk] 120k
[PS2 Madden 08] 270k
[NDS MySims] 150k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 200k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 200k

 

[I AM JOHN!]

Why are we doing it like this? Why can't we just post what we think'll be the top 10?

[360 Bioshock] 120K
[360 Halo 3] 2400K
[360 Madden 08] 500K
[360 Stranglehold] 80K (BELIEVE!!!)
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 235K
[PS3 Warhawk] 100K (I'm guessing more people downloaded than bought)
[PS2 Madden 08] 350K
[NDS MySims] 85K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 200K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 140K

 

[Christine]

FuckifIknow.
[360 Bioshock] 147k
[360 Halo 3] 2800k
[360 Madden 08] 285k
[360 Stranglehold] 130k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 100k
[PS3 Warhawk] 40k
[PS2 Madden 08] 400k
[NDS MySims] 190k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 240k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 174k

 

[dammitmattt]

[360 Bioshock] 125k
[360 Halo 3] 2750k
[360 Madden 08] 200k
[360 Stranglehold] 125k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 125k
[PS3 Warhawk] 50k
[PS2 Madden 08] 200k
[NDS MySims] 150k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 300k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 200k

 

[Chumly]

[360 Bioshock] 150K
[360 Halo 3] 2700K
[360 Madden 08] 200K
[360 Stranglehold] 100K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 90K
[PS3 Warhawk] 80K
[PS2 Madden 08] 300K
[NDS MySims] 130K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 200K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 300K

 

[nextgeneration]

Ooh, this is much more challenging than hardware. I'm in!

[360 Bioshock] 120k
[360 Halo 3] 2000k
[360 Madden 08] 200k
[360 Stranglehold] 85k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 110k
[PS3 Warhawk] 85k
[PS2 Madden 08] 100k
[NDS MySims] 150k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 850k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 250k

What's with the low Zelda predictions? Maybe I'm completely off, but that's what I'm sticking with. :lol

 

[TheSmokingManX]

[360 Bioshock] 145,000
[360 Halo 3] 2,750,000
[360 Madden 08] 290,000
[360 Stranglehold] 160,000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 250,000
[PS3 Warhawk] 87,000
[PS2 Madden 08] 205,000
[NDS MySims] 190,000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 290,000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 195,000

 

[The M.O.B]

[360 Bioshock] 150,000
[360 Halo 3] 2,900,000
[360 Madden 08] 420,000
[360 Stranglehold] 210,000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 180,000
[PS3 Warhawk] 120,000
[PS2 Madden 08] 320,000
[NDS MySims] 230,000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 200,000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 245,000

 

[JoshuaJSlone]

Remember, you can't win if you don't play.

Speaking of which, you haven't played software or hardware yet.

 

[JJConrad]

You'll get these numbers. Unfortunately, we can't take requests as NPD won't divulge dozens of titles, but we're looking for titles that are either highly anticipated/hyped or are likely to be chart toppers. And a definite slant to new releases.

There would be more Wii, but the low number of releases this month don't work in it's favor. We could have done Wii Play again, but it's had so many months of releases.

You can't blame me for wanting to turn this contest into a thinly-veiled attempt for personal requests. So does this mean that NPD will provide a limited number of titles outside the Top 10? If so, I think would be wise to ask for titles that we are not certian will already make the Top 10 to maximize the amount of info we get. Also, I'm a little puzzled that MySims DS is listed but not MySims Wii.

Anyway... I'm in:

[360 Bioshock] 120k
[360 Halo 3] 2500k
[360 Madden 08] 240k
[360 Stranglehold] 50k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 65k
[PS3 Warhawk] 35k
[PS2 Madden 08] 350k
[NDS MySims] 205k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 125k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 250k

 

[tetsuoxb]

[360 Bioshock] 210000
[360 Halo 3] 3200000
[360 Madden 08] 385000
[360 Stranglehold] 85000
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 65000
[PS3 Warhawk] 42000
[PS2 Madden 08] 278000
[NDS MySims] 73000
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 265000
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 135000

 

[Hammer24]

[360 Bioshock] 400k
[360 Halo 3] 3100k
[360 Madden 08] 270k
[360 Stranglehold] 120k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 90k
[PS3 Warhawk] 70k
[PS2 Madden 08] 320k
[NDS MySims] 120k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 230k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 170k

Uuh wow, thats like dynamite fishing for the blind...

 

[rikitikitik]

[360 Bioshock] 280k
[360 Halo 3] 2300k
[360 Madden 08] 280k
[360 Stranglehold] 220k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 120k
[PS3 Warhawk] 150k
[PS2 Madden 08] 300k
[NDS MySims] 120k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 340k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 250k

 

[titiklabingapat]

[360 Bioshock] 246k
[360 Halo 3] 3,178k
[360 Madden 08] 184k
[360 Stranglehold] 142k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 127k
[PS3 Warhawk] 76k
[PS2 Madden 08] 161k
[NDS MySims] 73k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 489k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 218k

 

[Nuclear Muffin]

[360 Bioshock] 200k
[360 Halo 3] 2500k
[360 Madden 08] 250k
[360 Stranglehold] 180k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 90k
[PS3 Warhawk] 75k
[PS2 Madden 08] 230k
[NDS MySims] 90k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 340k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 260k

Halo 3 is gonna gobble up a great deal of sales from other games this month IMO!

 

[Son of Godzilla]

[360 Bioshock] 160K
[360 Halo 3] 2300K
[360 Madden 08] 100K
[360 Stranglehold] 130K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 80K
[PS3 Warhawk] 40K
[PS2 Madden 08] 110K
[NDS MySims] 60K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 40K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 90K

 

[FieryBalrog]

[360 Bioshock] 220K
[360 Halo 3] 3400K
[360 Madden 08] 190K
[360 Stranglehold] 150K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 140K
[PS3 Warhawk] 100K
[PS2 Madden 08] 180K
[NDS MySims] 100K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 180K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 250K

 

[Belgorim]

[360 Bioshock] 250k
[360 Halo 3] 3000k
[360 Madden 08] 200k
[360 Stranglehold] 135k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 250k
[PS3 Warhawk] 100k
[PS2 Madden 08] 300k
[NDS MySims] 150k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 400k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 240k

Edit: Thought PH released earlier... edited it down a bit to compensate.

 

[rostocker]

[360 Bioshock] 187k
[360 Halo 3] 2832k
[360 Madden 08] 154k
[360 Stranglehold] 168k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 177k
[PS3 Warhawk] 62k
[PS2 Madden 08] 220k
[NDS MySims] 139k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 280k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 140k

 

[legend166]

[360 Bioshock] 126k
[360 Halo 3] 2950k
[360 Madden 08] 220k
[360 Stranglehold] 180k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 170k
[PS3 Warhawk] 70k
[PS2 Madden 08] 180k
[NDS MySims] 102k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 480k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 325k

I have no idea.

 

[Shao Kahn Brewing a Stew]

[360 Bioshock] 120K
[360 Halo 3] 2600K
[360 Madden 08] 180K
[360 Stranglehold] 170K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 95K
[PS3 Warhawk] 85K
[PS2 Madden 08] 160K
[NDS MySims] 140K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 210K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 160K

 

[Hyllian]

[360 Bioshock] 125K
[360 Halo 3] 2910K
[360 Madden 08] 245K
[360 Stranglehold] 230K
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 115K
[PS3 Warhawk] 100K
[PS2 Madden 08] 410K
[NDS MySims] 135K
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 240K
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 260K

 

[Barnolde]

[360 Bioshock] 100k
[360 Halo 3] 2800k
[360 Madden 08] 310k
[360 Stranglehold] 140k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword] 120k
[PS3 Warhawk] 180k
[PS2 Madden 08] 270k
[NDS MySims] 120k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass] 380k
[WII Metroid Prime 3] 200k

 

[sonycowboy]

Why are we doing it like this? Why can't we just post what we think'll be the top 10?

Because, we could easily end up with people posting games they simply want to know the sales of. We'd end up with > 100 titles among hundreds of folks and NPD isn't going to release that much info. From the contest side, if the number isn't revealed, the points distribution would be all screwed up. We'd have to give zero points even if you were dead on.

The number and consistency of titles will vary from heavy months like November/December, to regular months, and there may be slow months that coming up with 10 titles will be quite tricky.

In any case, this is a bit of a trial run for next month. In November, you end up with dozens of titles over 100k and in December, there are traditionally > 100 titles over 100k.

 

[Lobster]

[360 Bioshock]150k
[360 Halo 3]2800k
[360 Madden 08]300k
[360 Stranglehold]200k
[PS3 Heavenly Sword]300k
[PS3 Warhawk]100k
[PS2 Madden 08]250k
[NDS MySims]200k
[NDS Zelda: Phantom Hourglass]400k
[WII Metroid Prime 3]300k

We're not gonna get Wii Mysims?