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Official May 2008 NPD Thread - Wii, GTA IV, and more Wii

D

donny2112

Member
Actual

yoy_360-3.png


yoy_PS3-3.png


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Totals

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Estimated

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jts

jts

...hate me...
Hunahan said:
What doesn't change is that there is a 20% gross revenue gap between the two options. That's a lot bigger than people give it credit for.
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1 euro = >1.50 USD

Prices in europe = replace the currency, keep the number of the american ones. Which means companies get 50% more income for each game sold.

And still they don't seem to give a fuck.

I don't know man, you're pushing very hard a far fetched theory, ignoring costs during the process and the increasingly larger and larger Wii SW sales pushed by larger HW sales and a consequent closing gap to the PS3+360 LTD. At this rate we'll see in the not so distant future more than the currently already great number of 5 Wii titles in the top 10, let alone the top 30.

It's almost like you were in a famous river that runs in egypt.
 
jts

jts

...hate me...
Andrex said:
NO. NO MORE FUCKING SKUs.

Two is more than enough, goddamnit.
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Huh, it wouldn't be more, just the current number of them.

But fine then, ditch the pointless* Elite and step up the Premium to 60GB and there you go.

A low entry level barebones SKU and a well ballanced, well priced top SKU.

*inb4 bububu my Elite's HDD is already full etc
 
O

OokieSpookie

Banned
mugwhump said:
I think you're slightly underestimating the cost difference. From what developers have said, HD games are more like 2-4 times more expensive.
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The cost difference is there , anyone who denies it is trying too hard.
But on the other side of the coin, Wii devs not named Nintendo roll the dice with every game they make because low cost is great but if they do not sell they do not sell no matter what system that they are on.
People saying "this is why wii games will dominate" are forgetting that people do not buy games to give the devs money.
360 will continue to sell the most games for the the foreseeable future.
 
V

Vilix

Unconfirmed Member
norinrad21 said:
The HD situation is slowly turning into an abyss.:lol
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HD Gaming? Yes.

HDTV? No.

Seriously though, I hear HDTV sales are pretty strong. Even for this economy.
 
T

ThatObviousUser

ὁ αἴσχιστος παῖς εἶ
mio said:
Huh, it wouldn't be more, just the current number of them.

But fine then, ditch the pointless* Elite and step up the Premium to 60GB and there you go.

A low entry level barebones SKU and a well ballanced, well priced top SKU.

*inb4 bububu my Elite's HDD is already full etc
Click to expand...

I meant more total. Even going with your current suggestion would just add to the confusing mess of a pile.
 
L

laserbeam

Banned
Vilix said:
HD Gaming? Yes.

HDTV? No.

Seriously though, I hear HDTV sales are pretty strong. Even for this economy.
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Basically the only TVs you can buy now so its a kinda pointless statistic now. You go to the Electronic stores and all they sell are HDTVs.
 
V

Version 3.0

Member
Hunahan said:
I guess the thing that always surprises me about the way that people on this board react to sales numbers is that all that seems to matter is quantity sold.

To me, that seems like a pretty narrow lens to view sales numbers through.
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Your view is just one step up from the "narrow lens" you're condemning. The truth is, we don't know the costs or profit margins of these publishers. Your assumption of $10 per unit extra profit, though, is flawed.

First of all, the retailer makes a 20% margin (usually). That means the retailer makes about $12 on a $60 title, and $10 on a $50 title.

Secondly, the console manufacturer also takes 20% (again, approximately) for their license fee. So Nintendo takes ~$10 of a $50 title and Sony/Microsoft take ~$12 of a $60 title.

So right off the bat, that per unit profit difference is down to $6.

Whatever deal they have with their developers may or may not be percentage-based, like these. Again, I'll say: we don't know their costs or profits. It may be that $60 HD games turn a better profit than $50 Wii games. But that doesn't seem to be the general feeling, from the quotes we get from publishers (although some of them are outright lying when they give the "woe is us, we're not making enough money" spiel).
 
L

Link Man

Banned
Hunahan said:
Profits made last generation are irrelevant. What matters is what their options are for making money right now.


And GTA has already made that 100 million back.

More related to the point, they've already sold ~4.16 million units in the NA region alone.

Estimate the rest of the world by what we've been told and include shipping totals rather than retail, and we're easily looking at $70million gross above what it would have done on the Wii at $50.

Either way, I think everyone here can easily admit that GTA is an exception to the rule when it comes to game budgets, on Wii, HD consoles, or wherever. It's not a great example to use for budget.

I know you're not going to try and argue that Rockstar would have put out GTA:Wii for less than 10 million bucks, right. So I don't really understand the point.


All right.

I'll even give you the lowball estimate.

At 4 million sales for the next Resident Evil game, the difference in game-budget could be 40million dollars and it would still break even between the two options.

So you could take this ridiculously low 8 million dollar budgetted Resident Evil Wii game, and compare it directly with a blockbuster 48million budgetted Ps3/360 game and they will generate the same revenue.

That's a damning statement for break-even considering the relative size of userbases right now. Especially since I can tell you right now that in terms of damaging your brand, a cheap-o 8 million dollar RE main series title would seriously hurt their next title.



"Double" means nothing.

What kind of numbers are they talking about. What kind of games.

250k vs. 500k?
500k vs. 1m?
1m vs. 2m?

Depending on the scale of the game, that "double" is going to be a very different feat of accomplishment.

And, honestly, if all you have to do is sell two times as many copies of Soul Calibur 4 as you did of Soul Calibur Legends, then big deal. They'll do that in their sleep.

Namco has said a lot of things.

They are all too vague to be taken seriously.

What doesn't change is that there is a 20% gross revenue gap between the two options. That's a lot bigger than people give it credit for.
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In response to your RE theoretical, the Wii version (at $50) would only need 160k in sales to break even, whereas the HD version (at $60) would need 800k in sales to break even. That's a mighty big gap.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Vilix said:
HD Gaming? Yes.

HDTV? No.

Seriously though, I hear HDTV sales are pretty strong. Even for this economy.
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Yeah, but this is a gaming forum, not an electronics forum. even if you believe Sony's overall strategy was to push blu-ray at the expense of the PS3 if necessary and even if you acknowledge that Blu-ray, as the prevailing HD format has a bright future... it's utterly irrelevant to THIS discussion because THIS discussion is about the tradeoff Sony made, and they seem to have sacrificed the PS3 to mediocre sales.
 
V

Vilix

Unconfirmed Member
Gaborn said:
Yeah, but this is a gaming forum, not an electronics forum. even if you believe Sony's overall strategy was to push blu-ray at the expense of the PS3 if necessary and even if you acknowledge that Blu-ray, as the prevailing HD format has a bright future... it's utterly irrelevant to THIS discussion because THIS discussion is about the tradeoff Sony made, and they seem to have sacrificed the PS3 to mediocre sales.
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Umm....okay?
 
H

Hunahan

Banned
mio said:
1 euro = >1.50 USD

Prices in europe = replace the currency, keep the number of the american ones. Which means companies get 50% more income for each game sold.

And still they don't seem to give a fuck.
Click to expand...
They don't sell games in Europe all of a sudden? What are you talking about?

mio said:
I don't know man, you're pushing very hard a far fetched theory, ignoring costs during the process and the increasingly larger and larger Wii SW sales pushed by larger HW sales and a consequent closing gap to the PS3+360 LTD. At this rate we'll see in the not so distant future more than the currently already great number of 5 Wii titles in the top 10, let alone the top 30.

It's almost like you were in a famous river that runs in egypt.
Click to expand...
I didn't ignore costs during process at all. I addressed that in full.

And what "theory" are you talking about? I'm talking about revenue. The "theory of revenue?" The "theory of more money = good?"

If you really think that companies don't give a shit about revenue, then I think you're the one on that river.

But whatever. I'm done. I really shouldn't have bothered.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
Vilix said:
Umm....okay?
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I'm just saying that some people are saying "but sony's real strategy was to push blu ray so PS3 sales don't matter to them, they're going to make more money in the long term" well that's fine, but it doesn't really affect much does it? I mean, honestly, what's the relevance of HDTV sales here? This is about games and game sales, right now the PS3 is underperforming compared to it's expectations and other potential thoughts Sony had regarding Blu-Ray and HDTV doesn't matter.
 
O

OokieSpookie

Banned
Gaborn said:
Yeah, but this is a gaming forum, not an electronics forum. even if you believe Sony's overall strategy was to push blu-ray at the expense of the PS3 if necessary and even if you acknowledge that Blu-ray, as the prevailing HD format has a bright future... it's utterly irrelevant to THIS discussion because THIS discussion is about the tradeoff Sony made, and they seem to have sacrificed the PS3 to mediocre sales.
Click to expand...

The thing about that is, the games are what has hurt sony and nothing else.
Hell the rumor peeks of a blu ray drive for the 360 and people get hard ons saying "omg ill buy it!" just like everything else.
HDMI?
Not needed they insisted but oddly enough it is pretty standard.
Wireless?
Large network downloads?
Now blu ray.

If Sony had come out of the gate with big named games and had their shit straight with devs from day one 599 would not have been an issue.
Without blu the PS3 would not sell half as many units as they do now.
Even if they had released a non blu ray unit at launch for a lower price with the games that were released and hell even the games that they have now they would STILL be in the position that they are in only WITHOUT the boost from blu.
Even this far in Sony still seems to be clueless about games and devs, and it will continue to hold them back until they get their shit straight.
 
G

Gaborn

Member
OokieSpookie said:
The thing about that is, the games are what has hurt sony and nothing else.
Hell the rumor peeks of a blu ray drive for the 360 and people get hard ons saying "omg ill buy it!" just like everything else.
HDMI?
Not needed they insisted but oddly enough it is pretty standard.
Wireless?
Large network downloads?
Now blu ray.

If Sony had come out of the gate with big named games and had their shit straight with devs from day one 599 would not have been an issue.
Without blu the PS3 would not sell half as many units as they do now.
Even if they had released a non blu ray unit at launch for a lower price with the games that were released and hell even the games that they have now they would STILL be in the position that they are in only WITHOUT the boost from blu.
Even this far in Sony still seems to be clueless about games and devs, and it will continue to hold them back until they get their shit straight.
Click to expand...

Well, I think it was a combination of the two. You're right, if Sony had gotten some of their bigger games out earlier like they were saying people could have better accepted even $599 earlier, but the opposite point is also true... if Sony hadn't gone with BluRay and was able to sell the console for say $350 or $400 day one they would have been able to make more mistakes and be forgiven for them.
 
M

Mooreberg

Member
watership said:
3rd place... for May?

ABANDON SHIP! CANCEL EVERYTHING!
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He's right about the lack of price drops though. With the amount of room Sony gave them on pricing they should never have gotten to this point. Two months of huge GTA IV software sales and both months the hardware couldn't move 200K. Not solid, not spectacular.

If Sony had come out of the gate with big named games and had their shit straight with devs from day one 599 would not have been an issue.
Click to expand...

Any time you launch at 2x your previous starting price (and in a weaker economy to boot) you've got an issue. I agree that Sony's software strategy was backwards. They were trying to sell the system at its highest price with games most people had never heard of until they came out (Resistance, Motorstorm, etc) and are just now getting the games out that should have been there to begin with. Although they don't really have much control over third party software delays which was part of the problem too.

Even if they had released a non blu ray unit at launch for a lower price with the games that were released and hell even the games that they have now they would STILL be in the position that they are in only WITHOUT the boost from blu.
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If they had launched at $299 (if that even could have happened without Blu-Ray in the system, I don't know... I thought those drives only accounted for $100 of costs but I don't really follow that stuff) it would have sold, and those sales would have delivered more software support. None of these systems had what I'd call amazing launch line ups (Dreamcast being the standard) but Nintendo and Microsoft at least had recognizable sequels and lower prices.
 
J

JudgeN

Member
mugwhump said:
I think you're slightly underestimating the cost difference. From what developers have said, HD games are more like 2-4 times more expensive.
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Isn't this quote of 2-4 times more expensive only work when you are creating a new engine? I mean AC2 isn't going to cost anywhere near what AC1 did because the engine is already done, all they have to do now is modify it some. HD-gaming era is in its 3rd year alot of companies have already made there new engines, i would imagine the cost of making an HD game has dropped A lot.
 
J

jko

Junior Member
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:lol :lol :lol
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O

OldJadedGamer

Banned
Wollan said:
It doesn't say in the OP but is there a reason for no PS2 numbers?
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An NPD rep told GameSpot that the company now prefers "to focus on current generation platforms and not on previous generation platforms...There's a lot going on with PS2, but you have to pull the plug eventually." For its part Sony does not feel the same way, as it trumpeted the fact that "more than 42.2 million PS2s have been sold to date," in its own post-NPD press release.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/6192502.html?action=convert&om_clk=latestnews&tag=latestnews;title;0
 
S

sun-drop

Member
looks like gta4 did drive ps3 sales more than 360 ... that's pretty telling ... new console owners going forward are most likly to be buying ps3's

i mean if a mainstream title like GTA can't be a then indicator for that then what can?


should see an even bigger gap between 360 and ps3 next mth thanks to MGS4 80GB packin
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
lambchop said:
looks like gta4 did drive ps3 sales more than 360 ... that's pretty telling ... new console owners going forward are most likly to be buying ps3's

i mean if a mainstream title like GTA can't be a then indicator for that then what can?


should see an even bigger gap between 360 and ps3 next mth thanks to MGS4 80GB packin
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No, Sony had better promos at more populated stores.
 
A

_Alkaline_

Member
No real surprises this month, I thought Wii Fit and Wii Hardware would be a bit better but it's still total Nintendomination.

I really hope we get some Boom Blox numbers. Nintendo PR suggests it performed nicely.
 
C

CartridgeBlower

Member
Should we maybe stop looking at PS3 and the X360 as some type of failures, but rather the Wii as some super-anomaly success?

Honestly, what if the Wii didn't exist right now? Would these hardware sales be on par with past generations, month to month that is? Say the original Playstation or the Nintendo 64? Or are they really that bad? (Not counting the PS2, which was the Wii of it's generation).

Because there is always one. That super console that destroys everything else during it's generation.

And it doesn't mean that one will dictate the future (hence PS3's dropoff from PS2).

Part of me is thinking many people here are overreacting about the Wii's success. Yes, it's doing great. End of HD gaming? Give me a f'ing break.
 
A

Agent Icebeezy

Welcome beautful toddler, Madison Elizabeth, to the horde!
CartridgeBlower said:
Should we maybe stop looking at PS3 and the X360 as some type of failures, but rather the Wii as some super-anomaly success?

Honestly, what if the Wii didn't exist right now? Would these hardware sales be on par with past generations, month to month that is? Say the original Playstation or the Nintendo 64? Or are they really that bad? (Not counting the PS2, which was the Wii of it's generation).

See, there is always one.

And it doesn't mean that one will dictate the future (hence PS3's dropoff from PS2).

Because part of me is thinking many people here are overreacting about the Wii's success. Yes, it's doing great. End of HD gaming? Give me a f'ing break.
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It will be the end of HD gaming if they don't start moving a lot of consoles soon. You have the Wii decimating the others in sales on a monthly basis, all across the world. I'm not sold on giving up on the PS3/360 until one hits $199. I'm not talking about the arcade console either.
 
L

Link Man

Banned
CartridgeBlower said:
Should we maybe stop looking at PS3 and the X360 as some type of failures, but rather the Wii as some super-anomaly success?

Honestly, what if the Wii didn't exist right now? Would these hardware sales be on par with past generations, month to month that is? Say the original Playstation or the Nintendo 64? Or are they really that bad? (Not counting the PS2, which was the Wii of it's generation).

Because there is always one. That super console that destroys everything else during it's generation.

And it doesn't mean that one will dictate the future (hence PS3's dropoff from PS2).

Part of me is thinking many people here are overreacting about the Wii's success. Yes, it's doing great. End of HD gaming? Give me a f'ing break.
Click to expand...
People still think Wii is an anomaly?
 
Coolio McAwesome

Coolio McAwesome

Member
Quit quoting Star Trek gifs. We all know they are funny. Posting them repeatedly doesn't make them any funnier. This thread is giving me horrible flashbacks of when I was stuck with a dial-up connection.
 
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