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[Freezie KO]

This isn't worrisome for the 6/7-year-old consoles, but it should be for the handhelds. The handhelds are new and offering new experiences. There's no saturation or fatigue there.

Both of them are being pushed out of the market. One a bit slower than the other.

With the current divide between handhelds dying in the States and consoles dying in Japan, that just adds one more reason for Nintendo's eventual convergence of the two devices.


With that said, here's my prediction for the future:

2016. Nintendo releases a portable gaming handheld that can plug into your HDTV and connect to other controllers. This will replace both the 6-year-old 3DS and the 4-year-old WiiU. This is their New Gen paradigm shift.

Unified account, and every game available as DD. All Nintendo studios can focus on a single platform, finally able to sustain a steady output with solely first-party games if needed.

 

[thelurkinghorror]

this is the end of a generation... with no new kids on the horizon

 

[darkside31337]

If anything this just proves how essential and important the Wii was to the industry. For over 4 years the Wii was a record-breaking system that pushed a crazy amount of hardware units. Despite this clear lead even after the initial "Wii is a fad" first year period third parties in large failed to capitalize on the success of the Wii and left a shit ton of money on the table. So now in it's final year with absolutely minimal new software coming out and sales dip down the entire industry is doomed. Microsoft and Sony weren't contributing to growing the market during the explosive first few years and they're failing at selling to new consumers.

I really don't understand this. You can't argue that third parties left tons of money on the table (a premise I really don't agree with) because they completely ignored the Wii and then argue now they're totally screwed because the Wii is completely dead.

The PS3 and 360 aren't setting the world on fire right (the huge 360 dropoff was to be expected as the Kinect fad is dead) now but they're at almost the same levels as they were at in 2010 and there wasn't nearly as much chatter regarding doom and gloom as there is now.

It'd be interesting to see sales data for software just for PS3/360 games from year to year completely ignoring the Wii. If the former is holding up relatively well then this perceived need to get to the next generation as soon as possible might not be as urgent as people think. Of course for Nintendo, the Wii U certainly does need to get here as soon as possible.

 

[herod]

Curious to see how Vita is going to make its 10 million target. It seems more incredible with every passing NPD and MC thread.

 

[Massa]

Curious to see how Vita is going to make its 10 million target. It seems more incredible with every passing NPD and MC thread.

Did I miss a leak for the Vita numbers?

 

[herod]

Did I miss a leak for the Vita numbers?

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=38893308&postcount=654

 

[Massa]

ouch.

thanks for the link.

 

[Celine]

The console hardware market needs to contract. We don't need 5 dedicated systems on store shelves anymore. The demand just isn't there.

Somebody really needs to bow out.

But who?

 

[AgentOtaku]

I really really hope this is just generation fatigue.

honestly what I think it is

Sales HAVE TO drop off at some point.

 

[Hero]

I really don't understand this. You can't argue that third parties left tons of money on the table (a premise I really don't agree with) because they completely ignored the Wii and then argue now they're totally screwed because the Wii is completely dead.

Maybe a slight clarification is necessary in when I said third parties I'm talking about the big ones. You think Capcom, Square Enix, Konami, Namco, EA, etc. made as much as they could off of the Wii? Ubisoft and Sega made bank for sure. Capcom had some nice early success with RE4 Wii, Umbrella and Darkside Chronicles but instead of porting down RE5 they chose to put effort into making Dead Rising CTYD.

 

[electroplankton]

But who?

Nintendo, of course.

 

[Mpl90]

I think the actual situation can be explained in this way: both the economic crisis ( so, much less money to spend for hobbies ) and the fact that we'll see the first next gen home console only at the end of this year are creating a situation where customers feel to be much more satisfied not only by iOS/tablets, but also by PC gaming. With Steam, right now, you can play almost all the biggest releases AND many, many, many other games (indies) you can't find elsewhere at such great prices. The whole Steam system is working much more than ever, it's growing, and we can see how much PC gaming is growing just looking at the improvements with multi releases. So, people is spending more and more time playing, but with other devices, where you can buy games at great prices. And this time is becoming less and less for playing games on consoles and handhelds. I hope Wii U gives a good shake at the situation, or otherwise...how could consoles which can't be less than 399 $ given the last rumours, and which could even be released in 2014, giving even more opportunity for Steam/iOS/tablet gaming to grow obtain to change things? Basically: gaming is going digital much faster than we could have ever imagined, and the HW companies are helping to accelerate this shift. Obviously, we have to count numbers would be better if the economic crisis wasn't so deep.

About handhelds: I'm not worried for 3DS, since it has NSMB2 in August, a game which sells 10 millions in US alone, and so far we've seen Nintendo releases have been received greatly (OoT 3D is over 1 million ), and it'll have all the big Nintendo franchises. Then, there's also a revision / new model incoming...and actually what happened this month, with DSi improving a lot due to the price cut, and almost doing as well as 3DS, makes me think there's still a good amount of audience for portable offering. NSMB2 will help with the shift, and I find a pretty "clever" move from Nintendo to release it before Pokèmon, since Mario will improve significantly 3DS' adoption, and so people won't go and buy just a DS for Pokèmon so easily, especially with the apps which improves the experience.

But for Vita...it can't continue to do like this. Sony has to cut the price this Fall, or the next Dreamcast is here, basically.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

Curious to see how Vita is going to make its 10 million target. It seems more incredible with every passing NPD and MC thread.

Even more so considering Sony's recent statement of it selling 'as forecast', I mean it sold what...150k worldwide? PSMuerte.

 

[Dalthien]

The PS3 and 360 aren't setting the world on fire right (the huge 360 dropoff was to be expected as the Kinect fad is dead) now but they're at almost the same levels as they were at in 2010 and there wasn't nearly as much chatter regarding doom and gloom as there is now.

Unless there are some $100 price drops in the immediate vicinity - this 2010 talk needs to stop right now. You might want to take a look at the next several months in 2010 and see if you honestly believe PS3 + X360 will be coming anywhere near those numbers.

This month was the 360's worst month since May/07, and PS3's worst month since July/09.

 

[AniHawk]

But who?

sony for handhelds, nintendo for consoles.

it'll probably happen next next gen at this rate. nintendo will make their handheld/console hybrid thing, and sony will try getting some console ps5 games playable on their own playstation service for tablets and smartphones.

 

[Mpl90]

The new mario game is less than 1/4 latest MC LTD number.

So, it did around 40k.

 

[electroplankton]

sony for handhelds, nintendo for consoles.

it'll probably happen next next gen at this rate. nintendo will make their handheld/console hybrid thing, and sony will try getting some console ps5 games playable on their own playstation service for tablets and smartphones.

Are you sure?
I was thinking that since MS and Sony will follow similar strategies, one of them will struggle behind leaving the market, with Nintendo being the outsider.

 

[Opus Angelorum]

We're looking forward to a strong second half of 2012

Good luck with that.

The Wii U is launching into a very unstable market, it will either sell very well (because consumers are genuinely generation fatigued) or it will be a damp squib.

 

[Blearth]

I honestly believe the PS4 will be Sony's final piece of gaming hardware.

 

[AniHawk]

Are you sure?
I was thinking that since MS and Sony will follow similar strategies, one of them will struggle behind leaving the market, with Nintendo being the outsider.

sony's been in this race for a long time. their goal is to make the machine microsoft is making (which is why microsoft got in the race in the first place- to beat sony to it). they're going to see this out to the end.

the only way another playstation doesn't get made after the ps4 is if the entirety of sony implodes, or the ps4 does extraordinarily poorly.

I honestly believe the PS4 will be Sony's final piece of gaming hardware.

i can't see it happening. the ps3 didn't set the world on fire, but it's been keeping up with the 360 in hardware sales. third parties are going to force it to live too, if it's close enough to the next xbox, in order to make money back on their more expensive titles. this isn't a case like the vita where the predecessor was dead in a few markets for several years.

 

[Hero]

sony's been in this race for a long time. their goal is to make the machine microsoft is making (which is why microsoft got in the race in the first place- to beat sony to it). they're going to see this out to the end.

the only way another playstation doesn't get made after the ps4 is if the entirety of sony implodes, or the ps4 does extraordinarily poorly.



i can't see it happening. the ps3 didn't set the world on fire, but it's been keeping up with the 360 in hardware sales. third parties are going to force it to live too, if it's close enough to the next xbox, in order to make money back on their more expensive titles. this isn't a case like the vita where the predecessor was dead in a few markets for several years.

You realize that the bolded is an extremely likely scenario, right?

 

[subversus]

Max Payne is bomba. I think it sold about 1-1.5 million copies WW.

 

[thelurkinghorror]

Max Payne is bomba. I think it sold about 1-1.5 million copies WW.

I think Max Payne 3 did very well WW!

 

[walking fiend]

Max Payne is bomba. I think it sold about 1-1.5 million copies WW.

How much sold the first one?

 

[thelurkinghorror]

How much sold the first one?

You can not compare them, the first one is very old. I had read MP3 exceeded the sales of the original in the first week.

From Take Two Interactive:
"Max Payne 3 for consoles has sold 3 million units during its initial launch"

 

[AniHawk]

You realize that the bolded is an extremely likely scenario, right?

i think sony's too big to fail. and if they are going to make cuts, it won't be in the game division first, where they've been working to become masters of the living room for 18 years.

i also don't see the ps4 doing extraordinarily poorly. sony should have enough third party and first party support to keep the ps3 going decently until a successor can help take its place.

 

[Instro]

Max Payne is bomba. I think it sold about 1-1.5 million copies WW.

If it sold that much WW I'd have a hard time believing that the game hasn't been successful. The budget on it couldn't have been that large, considering the IP and the poor sales of Max Payne 2.

 

[thelurkinghorror]

i think sony's too big to fail. and if they are going to make cuts, it won't be in the game division first, where they've been working to become masters of the living room for 18 years.

Back in the days you would say the same of Atari and Sega? Never say never, especially in these rough times

 

[AniHawk]

Back in the days you would say the same of Atari and Sega? Never say never, especially in these rough times

atari and sega were game-only companies though. and sony's strategy was to eventually offer movies and other entertainment through the same box. they just wanted to make that box a video game system first and make it less of a video game (only) system over time.

 

[SmokyDave]

Back in the days you would say the same of Atari and Sega? Never say never, especially in these rough times

SEGA didn't fail. We, the gamers, failed.

 

[subversus]

If it sold that much WW I'd have a hard time believing that the game hasn't been successful. The budget on it couldn't have been that large, considering the IP and the poor sales of Max Payne 2.

it needs about 4 million copies to break even. Standard fare with RS games.

edit: I stand corrected! 3 million is not bad.

 

[Magic Mushroom]

You can not compare them, the first one is very old. I had read MP3 exceeded the sales of the original in the first week.

From Take Two Interactive:
"Max Payne 3 for consoles has sold 3 million units during its initial launch"

Also, the PC version wasn't even out in May, right? I know quite a few people who waited for that or even double dipped.

 

[Wolfie5]

In my opinion, the transition to a new home console has taken too long.
If you want a good hardware sale, 5-6 years should be the norm(before a new one is released), depending on how the current console is doing. Wii U is 1 year late, it should have been released at end of 2011 and not when the Wii is pretty much dead. PS3 and 360 is not in the same situation yet, but they are getting there. I think they will also be a year late(in terms of hardware sales) since they seem to be targeting end of 2013?

A lot of people has purchased the 3 consoles that are currently in the market. More so than any previous generation I believe? Sure, the consoles might sell better with a pricedrop, but I am beginning to wonder how many more will buy a console from current generation.

Plus a new console from Nintendo is going to be released this holliday. I think Wii U will be sold out and depending on the number of units they produce is what will determine how PS3 and 360 will do. Maybe 360 will do better if they pricedrop and bundle with kinect(which has increased 360 lifecycle) but I don't see how PS3 will do any good hardware sales this year.

 

[Hammer24]

Hey JVM, I´d like to request two graphs from you:
- a graph of the monthly ASP´s for the systems over the last twelve months
- a graph giving the ratios from the ASP´s to the actual sales numbers over the last twelve months
Thx for considering!

 

[AniHawk]

SEGA didn't fail. We, the gamers, failed.

also, sega failed.

Spoiler

i don't think there was any saving the dreamcast short of it becoming a ps2-like phenom

 

[subversus]

Also, the PC version wasn't even out in May, right? I know quite a few people who waited for that or even double dipped.

PC version will do 200 000 - 500 000 copies WW easily. The port is good, it was marketed well, IP is well-known on PC.

 

[SmokyDave]

also, sega failed.

Spoiler

i don't think there was any saving the dreamcast short of it becoming a ps2-like phenom

I agree. The unit came too late for one generation and was too weak for the next.

 

[Mpl90]

About Mario Tennis, I don't think we can count it as a sign of Mario's fatigue. Probably, it's just that the Mario Tennis brand isn't so strong as the other Mario releases. Otherwise, why 3D Land is already over 2 millions, or MK7 is over 1.6 millions.

 

[electroplankton]

About Mario Tennis, I don't think we can count it as a sign of Mario's fatigue. Probably, it's just that the Mario Tennis brand isn't so strong as the other Mario releases. Otherwise, why 3D Land is already over 2 millions, or MK7 is over 1.6 millions.

How did other Mario sport games performed in the US?

 

[giancarlo123x]

Max Payne 3 less than 450k? Release the Kraken(GTA5) in October!

 

[gcubed]

So basically handhelds and the US don't mix anymore

 

[Mpl90]

How did other Mario sport games performed in the US?

The only thing I remember is a 200k for Mario Sports Mix at the first month, but still...if someone can give us some numbers for other Mario Tennis releases...

EDIT: Or also for other Tennis games in US. Probably, Tennis as sport isn't so strong in US as in Europe. I remember the first Grand Slam Tennis did much better here in Europe than in US, for example...

 

[AniHawk]

I agree. The unit came too late for one generation and was too weak for the next.

well i think as far as power went, it would have been fine. people were generally wowed by soulcalibur and sonic adventure. and the machine was getting lots of exclusives too. it was just years of bad decisions that had finally caught up with them. sega was basically dead in america in 1997 and it was like they'd been on hiatus at the time the dreamcast launched. if the company wasn't bleeding so much cash, it probably would have outsold the xbox and gamecube though.

 

[Celine]

I agree. The unit came too late for one generation and was too weak for the next.

And Sega was cash stripped...

Not that matter much, Sega was always the little guy compared to Nintendo or Sony.

well i think as far as power went, it would have been fine. people were generally wowed by soulcalibur and sonic adventure. and the machine was getting lots of exclusives too. it was just years of bad decisions that had finally caught up with them. sega was basically dead in america in 1997 and it was like they'd been on hiatus at the time the dreamcast launched. if the company wasn't bleeding so much cash, it probably would have outsold the xbox and gamecube though.

No.
DC had a few high profile third party exclusives (Resident Evil, Soul Calibur) but it wasn't enough.
Sega games and more in general the concept behind the system (arcade oriented) didn't resonated well enough with the market.

DC LTD as it was achieved was through heavily discounting.
First to try to regain the good enough momentum to keep the company operative and then to liquidate the whole hardware business.

 

[mclem]

Even more so considering Sony's recent statement of it selling 'as forecast', I mean it sold what...150k worldwide? PSMuerte.

Maybe their forecast was "COD comes out, we sell one bazillion"?

All according to keikaku.

(Translator's note: Keikaku means plan forecast)

 

[thelurkinghorror]

I agree. The unit came too late for one generation and was too weak for the next.

Absolutely true and Atari did the same with Jaguar: too late/too weak.
This, however, continues to demonstrate that a well-know brand can bite the dust even if it seems impossible.

 

[Saty]

PC version will do 200 000 - 500 000 copies WW easily. The port is good, it was marketed well, IP is well-known on PC.

Well, MP3 shipped 3 million so dunno how exactly it sold. There's this analyst who expects it to sell 4M lifetime but that same guy estimated last year that the game cost $105M and would need 4 million to just break even. Dunno if he later changed that.

http://www.gamespot.com/news/max-payne-3-will-sell-4-million-analyst-6378045
http://www.industrygamers.com/news/...develop-require-4-million-sold-to-break-even/

 

[liger05]

3DS needs games. NSMB will help massivly but still too many dry patches.

Vita is on life support. It doesnt matter how you try and spin it the vita is in a bad bad spot.

I dont think the Dreamcast failure was all about the hardware. There is no doubt that Sega's actions with the 32X, Mega CD and saturn burned the consumer and hurt the brand big time.

 

[SmokyDave]

well i think as far as power went, it would have been fine. people were generally wowed by soulcalibur and sonic adventure. and the machine was getting lots of exclusives too. it was just years of bad decisions that had finally caught up with them. sega was basically dead in america in 1997 and it was like they'd been on hiatus at the time the dreamcast launched. if the company wasn't bleeding so much cash, it probably would have outsold the xbox and gamecube though.

I dunno man, I remember sitting down and comparing the Celica GT4 models in MSR and GT3 and the difference was huge. Can't imagine how multi-plats would've looked across DC & Xbox. I'm sure it could have done better if SEGA had solid financials, but they'd still have been 'off-cycle' for the generation.

That's just power though, and as we all know, there's much more to consider.

 

[Globox_82]

It really makes you wonder how well halo 4, GOWA, TLOU, Beyond, etc are going to perform.....there better be some console price cut really soon