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[Brazil]

All the 3DS discussion is making me depressed. Nintendo has made so many mistakes (awful launch line-up, console/branding too similar to DS), and the future isn't looking good considering how they don't have a single new game slated for release.

New ideas made the DS and the Wii. Of course, people bought NSMB in both platforms, but Brain Age, Nintendogs, Wii Sports and many, many other original ideas are the reasons why they are really interesting and compelling.

I know, I know... "Wait for E3" and all that. But the anxiety has taken over.

If they think they'll be as successful as they were in the current (last?) generation with sequels based on minor improvements (just look at City Folk. Disgusting), they're gonna flop. Hard. Deservingly. Sadly.

Edit: Also, the Wii. Why doesn't Nintendo bring their own fucking games to the West? I don't even--

 

[makingmusic476]

The blue line represents some sort of average over time it seems

It says it right at the top. "Blue Line Indicates Xbox 360 to PS3 Hardware Base Ratio"

Edit:

It'd be interesting to see a similar graph with figures for newer games like Black Ops. Didn't that one perform better on PS3 relative to the install base ratio? I'm pretty sure it at least did that across the totality of North America and Europe, based on Activision's revenue statements and install base estimates.

 

[Flying_Phoenix]

I'm going to be honest, I don't feel bad for Nintendo at all.

With the 3DS, they released an overpriced, half ass designed console with a very subpar launch line up. Can't really feel bad for them.

The Wii on the other hand is a catastrophe. Yes, yes Project Cafe in a year, but why not bring over some of those Japanese games to the States? They're resting on plenty of quality content and not doing anything.

Completely deserved.

 

[Megadragon15]

Everything is setting up perfectly for MS to finally win the U.S. market next gen with the 720.

So the big question is how will they screw it up?

$599.99.

 

[donny2112]

Nevermind. Answered above.

 

[Pimpbaa]

Nintendo is really botching the 3DS launch. They need content.

Your move Sony, N is leaving the door WIDE open.

Nintendo left the door wide open for the PSP and look what happened.The DS started to get good after the PSP came out.

 

[ULTROS!]

I wouldn't be surprised if Cafe launched more than $349.

 

[jvm]

Thanks. So stuff above the blue line represents games that sell disproportionally well on the 360?

edit: Also based on NPD numbers (instead of global I assume)?

Yes and yes.

 

[TOAO_Cyrus]

Thanks. So stuff above the blue line represents games that sell disproportionally well on the 360?

edit: Also based on NPD numbers (instead of global I assume)?

Every game above the 1 on the vertical axis sold more on the 360 which is all except one. The blue line is probably the average.

 

[makingmusic476]

$599.99.

Or pull a 3DS and release with no killer app and a price that's just kinda high ($399-499). Relying on third parties in that scenario would be especially dangerous, since the system would be coming in a year or more after one of its competitors.

 

[sleepykyo]

It says it right at the top. "Blue Line Indicates Xbox 360 to PS3 Hardware Base Ratio"

Edit:

It'd be interesting to see a similar graph with figures for newer games like Black Ops. Didn't that one perform better on PS3 relative to the install base ratio? I'm pretty sure it at least did that across the totality of North America and Europe, based on Activision's revenue statements and install base estimates.

Maybe, but that was after 2 Infinity Ward games (MW, MW2), and one slightly modified MW (WAW). Between the map pack exclusivity, and Black Ops though, MW3 should be really be widening the gap further toward the 360 side. Oh and psn collapsing.

 

[Freezie KO]

3DS sales are obviously a confluence of factors. Price, platform differentiation with DS, and most importantly software.

As a 3DS owner, I can't tell if I'm happy or not about this. A hungry Nintendo is always better than a complacent Nintendo. When they're really on their game, they make the best games around. But if they're constantly looking for "the next savior" of the platform, they might rush large titles through development like they did for Mario Sunshine and Wind Waker. I'd hate to see this happen if they tried to rush Super Mario 3D for this holiday.

 

[Huff]

Or pull a 3DS and release with no killer app and a price that's just kinda high ($399-499). Relying on third parties in that scenario would be especially dangerous, since the system would be coming in a year or more after one of its competitors.

Activision and COD. For America at least, some kind of a timed exclusive is all it needs for a big boost. Then 1st party kinect (version 2) games. I see MS relying on 3rd party alot next gen for their "hardcore"/standard controller games.

 

[suaveric]

I'm going to be honest, I don't feel bad for Nintendo at all.

With the 3DS, they released an overpriced, half ass designed console with a very subpar launch line up. Can't really feel bad for them.

The Wii on the other hand is a catastrophe. Yes, yes Project Cafe in a year, but why not bring over some of those Japanese games to the States? They're resting on plenty of quality content and not doing anything.

Completely deserved.

Do you honestly believe that a bunch of jRPGs are going to turn the Wii's fortunes around? That's not what got the Wii to the top of the heap in the first place, I don't see how releasing those games now will stop the bleeding.

 

[Htown]

Well, I was going to answer your question as best I could. This is one idea for examining genre distributions that I eventually rejected for an article. The basic problem I have with it is that it's difficult to judge ratios. I'm sure there are some ways to fix it, but I'm not going back to it right now.

Also, launch ratios, although my experience with some titles shows that the launch ratio can often be a very good indicator of long-term sales ratios.

Multiplayer above the line, single player below the line. (Mostly)

Makes sense.

 

[InsaneZero]

The only thing I'd feel negative about is my stock value.

Anyhow, this is pretty much the DS launch all over again. Equally terrible launch, equally similar cries of doom and despair. I'd have to look at E3 to see what kind of offerings the third parties give the platform which will really determine how the 3DS evolves.

I mean, Nintendo will probably have their aces in their sleeves as they usually do now that they don't bother with the long-term announcements anymore. I expect that Mario Kart will go on to sell billions, and Nintendo will have some other killer app after that.

But they need that third party support to be on the 3DS (Japanese anyway, Western companies are a portable lost cause) at the same time so that they can foster a third-party friendly environment for the years to come.

 

[Cheech]

Everything is setting up perfectly for MS to finally win the U.S. market next gen with the 720.

So the big question is how will they screw it up?

Over emphasis on the casual market, and alienating their core base by flooding the market with Kinect crap at the expense of games like Gears and Halo.

For the record, I don't think this will actually happen, but it's all I can think of. There's the possibility of $599 of course, but I don't think anybody is going to be that stupid ever again.

 

[ZAK]

I knew the Wii had been doing badly, but had it really been doing this badly? What a stinker.

 

[Anth0ny]

I, for one, find it much easier to judge distances in Pilotwings with the 3D turned on. Based on this observation, I think 3D can add a lot to any games that requires players to judge distances. Platformers, for example, could greatly benefit from 3D. Have you ever missed a jump in a platformer because you misjudged how far away it was? 3D clearly makes it easier to judge distances and, therefore, I think the assertion that it's completely "useless for gameplay" is a little shortsighted.

I've been playing platformers for 15 years now. Maybe on my first day playing Mario 64 I misjudged distances... since then, I've been good.

3D does fuck all.

 

[chubigans]

Anyhow, this is pretty much the DS launch all over again. Equally terrible launch, equally similar cries of doom and despair.

I dunno, I don't think the 3DS' success is that assured given the huge amount of competition they have this time around. It won't do anything near what the DS has sold in it's lifetime.

 

[user_nat]

I knew the Wii had been doing badly, but had it really been doing this badly? What a stinker.

Is it really that bad though? It's closer to the PS3 than the PS3 is to the 360..

Unrelated:
From the top: "The Xbox 360 platform generated the greatest unit sales of new physical content at over 3.5 million units for the month"

Do we usually get a total software units number like this? Seems somewhat low.

 

[lucius]

Regarding the 3DS, 3D is pretty fun for movies at the theatre but I have zero interest in 3D TV or 3D gaming.

2 hours of 3D in a movie theatre is enough for most ppl for a month. I am betting the 3D switch on 3DS will be turned off most of the time for many ppl, only turning it up when the very few top games which take full advantage of it. The problem for Nintendo 3D is suppose to be a big selling point for the system.

 

[Pimpbaa]

I've been playing platformers for 15 years now. Maybe on my first day playing Mario 64 I misjudged distances... since then, I've been good.

3D does fuck all.

A person with 1 eye can still catch a baseball after some practice, but it doesn't mean it's a preferable way of doing things. We have 2 eyes for a reason, and being able to judge depth WILL help with games.

 

[dvolovets]

3D is useless. I love Nintendo and enjoyed what the 3DS has offered so far, as little as that is, but 3D is objectively useless as far as gameplay is concerned. 'Judging distances' is the lamest reason I have heard. This was never an issue before, and anybody who DID have an issue is in the minority. I'm really hoping this hardware drop is temporary and will get a nice kick in the pants when some decent games hit shelves.

 

[sleepykyo]

Is it really that bad though? It's closer to the PS3 than the PS3 is to the 360..

Considering how it used to do and that the PS3 isn't particularly popular that is pretty bad for the Wii. When person gets sickly enough to be mistaken for a corpse, that ain't good.

 

[MikeE21286]

Any word on DS hardware? Might have been asked about but I didnt see it...

 

[VGChampion]

Dang, I don't think I've been in one of these threads for a year or two. I assumed the Wii was still selling around 800-900k a month. Shows how much I know.

 

[Tutomos]

It's clear people who were playing Brain Age are playing Angry Bird now.

 

[Why For?]

Prett amazing stuff by MS when you think about it.

Over 100 million lead to Sony from previous gen, 1 year head start all but eroded by RROD fiasco, online you have to pay for, no Blu-ray and still kicking all manner of ass in it's 6th year. Wow.

Gonna have to import Mortal Kombat soon (AU).

 

[Pimpbaa]

3D is useless. I love Nintendo and enjoyed what the 3DS has offered so far, as little as that is, but 3D is objectively useless as far as gameplay is concerned. 'Judging distances' is the lamest reason I have heard. This was never an issue before, and anybody who DID have an issue is in the minority. I'm really hoping this hardware drop is temporary and will get a nice kick in the pants when some decent games hit shelves.

It has ALWAYS been an issue, they just have been good at giving other visual cues to help (shadows or tilting the camera up). Anybody who don't have some agenda against 3D would have noticed this in Pilot Wings when you try to land your plane.

 

[LiquidMetal14]

Prett amazing stuff by MS when you think about it.

Over 100 million lead to Sony from previous gen, 1 year head start all but eroded by RROD fiasco, online you have to pay for, no Blu-ray and still kicking all manner of ass in it's 6th year. Wow.

Gonna have to import Mortal Kombat soon (AU).

The price advantage has been very important this gen.

 

[Cheech]

It's clear people who were playing Brain Age are playing Angry Bird now.

Hah. Eloquent and true. The market for dedicated handheld gaming systems is evaporating at a record pace.

 

[MikeE21286]

It's clear people who were playing Brain Age are playing Angry Bird now.

pretty good way to characterize Nintendo's current and future uphill battle.

 

[RedStep]

At one point, I used to believe that the split would be used to determine if they would improve the PS3 ports. But I've come around to the viewpoint that they figure as long passes certification the PS3 versions are good enough.

This gives me a funny mental image of the devs sitting around in a situation room waiting for news of whether their shitty port passed cert.

 

[friskykillface]

RIP 3DS


at those numbers, hopefully it'll pick up when more games come out, dat resident evil mercenaries B^)


Mortal Kombat taking over glad it's doing awesome, best and most packed fighter then MvC3 and SSFIV , *runs away*

 

[sleepykyo]

Multiplayer above the line, single player below the line. (Mostly)

Makes sense.

I can understand why Batman is under it. Heavily advertised with Joker exclusive and no major performance differences in a single player game. But what happened with Borderlands?

 

[dvolovets]

It has ALWAYS been an issue, they just have been good at giving other visual cues to help (shadows or tilting the camera up). Anybody who don't have some agenda against 3D would have noticed this in Pilot Wings when you try to land your plane.

I have no agenda against 3D. I did notice a difference, but I don't think it is anything that can make or break a game. The thing is being poorly advertised. 3D shouldn't be the main selling point, because I think you'll agree with me when I say that 3D in of itself is not worth $250.

The fact of the matter is that the 3DS is much more than 3D. It is Nintendo's next main handheld, but the marketing doesn't make this clear at all.

 

[Pimpbaa]

The fact of the matter is that the 3DS is much more than 3D. It is Nintendo's next main handheld, but the marketing doesn't make this clear at all.

Well I do agree with that. The thing is capable of outputting much better graphics than the PSP and most people don't know this.

 

[InsaneZero]

I dunno, I don't think the 3DS' success is that assured given the huge amount of competition they have this time around. It won't do anything near what the DS has sold in it's lifetime.

The PSP provided more competition for the DS than the NGP did for the 3DS at similar points in time simply for being present at approximately the same time frame and having pretty much all of the momentum.

What Nintendo really dropped the ball on again, is simply providing content at launch that really defines the platform. Like Amir0x says, the landscape is pretty much all remakes and ports right now.

However, we do know that there's a Mario Kart coming in this year, which has always been a landmark for kickstarting Nintendo console growth. With Sony launching the NGP at the end of the year, this provides some more breathing room than the DS had with the PSP. Added to that with the original content coming in from third parties by next year, that should provide the 3DS more than enough movement to start gaining momentum.

 

[Cromat]

It's clear that $250 is too much for a dedicated gaming handheld, much less one with no games and no amazing features (except for Avatar, 3D was never mainstream and is always a 'fad' people get tired of). It's too close to iPod/Smartphone/Tablet territory.

I'll share an anecdote. In the past, parents used to buy their kids (and kids are a large portion of the handheld market) Gameboys and DSs so they could play them in the back of the car. Now Mom and Dad have an iPad the whole family can use. Nintendo lost the whole "grandma can play too!" angle when grandma now plays Fruit Ninja for 99 cents on an iPhone, so the evergreen "non-games" are in trouble.

Both 3DS and NGP will perform much worse than their predecessors. And Ocarina of Time 3D will NOT save 3DS. It's a remake of an old game in a declining series. It will sell fairly well, if not only because there is no other justification for owning a 3DS until fall, but it won't change the fate of the 3DS one bit. The "games to wait for" are only Mario and Pokemon.

 

[chubigans]

The PSP provided more competition for the DS than the NGP did for the 3DS at similar points in time simply for being present at approximately the same time frame and having pretty much all of the momentum.

What Nintendo really dropped the ball on again, is simply providing content at launch that really defines the platform. Like Amir0x says, the landscape is pretty much all remakes and ports right now.

However, we do know that there's a Mario Kart coming in this year, which has always been a landmark for kickstarting Nintendo console growth. With Sony launching the NGP at the end of the year, this provides some more breathing room than the DS had with the PSP. Added to that with the original content coming in from third parties by next year, that should provide the 3DS more than enough movement to start gaining momentum.

I was actually talking more about Apple than Sony.

 

[Curufinwe]

Prett amazing stuff by MS when you think about it.

Over 100 million lead to Sony from previous gen, 1 year head start all but eroded by RROD fiasco, online you have to pay for, no Blu-ray and still kicking all manner of ass in it's 6th year. Wow.

Gonna have to import Mortal Kombat soon (AU).

Previous gen gap between Sony and MS in NA was 30 million, not a hundred million.

http://gamerinvestments.com/video-g.../01/14/npd-north-american-hardware-ltd-sales/

 

[Cromat]

Well I do agree with that. The thing is capable of outputting much better graphics than the PSP and most people don't know this.

Including Nintendo

*zing*

 

[Sydle]

The price advantage has been very important this gen.

Oh yeah, I remember how well that worked out for Gamecube.

 

[Animator]

People really think 3ds sales will see a huge boost because a zalda hd port people have already played million times is coming out on the system?

 

[Curufinwe]

Oh yeah, I remember how well that worked out for Gamecube.

The Gamecube was a year late, not a year early like the 360.

 

[dimb]

Well I do agree with that. The thing is capable of outputting much better graphics than the PSP and most people don't know this.

I certainly haven't seen it.

 

[Ollie Pooch]

Well I do agree with that. The thing is capable of outputting much better graphics than the PSP and most people don't know this.

With th 3d on? I thought it took a performance hit.

 

[Jomjom]

I certainly haven't seen it.

Yeah seriously, the graphics for the games released so far for the 3DS look only marginally better than the PSP. That's only for a few games too, the majority still look much much worse than PSP games.

 

[Father_Brain]

I'll share an anecdote. In the past, parents used to buy their kids (and kids are a large portion of the handheld market) Gameboys and DSs so they could play them in the back of the car. Now Mom and Dad have an iPad the whole family can use. Nintendo lost the whole "grandma can play too!" angle when grandma now plays Fruit Ninja for 99 cents on an iPhone, so the evergreen "non-games" are in trouble.

Not saying there isn't some degree of truth to this, but the word "anecdote" does not mean what you think it means.