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[Bernbaum]

Welcome to the 2016 Australian Election thread.

Proudly brought to you by Governor General Peter Cosgrove and Microsoft Powerpoint 2013.

Get "ready" for a "wild" EIGHT WEEK LONG election campaign.

Link to the original AusPoliGAF thread.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Oh goody. We already started getting the stealth campaign mailers last week. Now we can look forward to the real thing.

 

[darkace]

Going to be a good campaign, hopefully. We finally have two parties fighting on policy rather than one led by an idiot yelling loudly at clouds.

 

[Dynamite Shikoku]

Good night, sweet turnbull. You have been the biggest nobody PM in forever.

 

[bobnowhere]

Just saw my first coalition add, if I didn't already recognise the voice I would have thought I'd been transported back in time to the last NSW state election. The whole thing was straight out of the Mike Baird playbook.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Just saw my first coalition add, if I didn't already recognise the voice I would have thought I'd been transported back in time to the last NSW state election. The whole thing was straight out of the Mike Baird playbook.

At least with the election officially called we'll probably see the end of the stealth campaign ads on TERRORISM and INNOVATION that have taken over the airwaves for the last 2 weeks. The innovation ones at least aren't awful but the Terrorism ads are the kind of creepy paranoid distrust sowing sludge that makes me want to throw things at the TV.

 

[Rubixcuba]

Going to be a long campaign. Both parties first ads are out, Liberal gone negative, Labor positive. Sums up both parties haha.

Oh and love the thread title!

 

[i_am_ben]

I expect Labor to be beaten and [not] to be added to the title.

 

[Fredescu]

I expect Labor to be beaten and [not] to be added to the title.

Technically term is shortened, even if they get a second term.

Edit: But yeah agreed on the result.

 

[Elaugaufein]

I expect Labor to be beaten and [not] to be added to the title.

Based on the current polls and usual contraction to the incumbent late in the campaign, yeah I'd agree , if the election was to be held tomorrow. The current trajectory is the opposite of that though, so it'll be interesting to see if the Budget / Campaign announcements will staunch / reverse that.

 

[D.Lo]

At least with the election officially called we'll probably see the end of the stealth campaign ads on TERRORISM and INNOVATION that have taken over the airwaves for the last 2 weeks. The innovation ones at least aren't awful but the Terrorism ads are the kind of creepy paranoid distrust sowing sludge that makes me want to throw things at the TV.

Dear old people.

Don't be alarmed... but there may be a MUSLIM IMMIGRANT TERRORIST IN YOUR HOUSE!!!

By the way, even though this is not an election ad you should definitely vote for the party that pretends to be the toughest against immigrants, while actually letting record numbers in!

Brought to you by Australian taxpayers money, Canberra.

 

[jellies_two]

Dear old people.

Don't be alarmed... but there may be a MUSLIM IMMIGRANT TERRORIST IN YOUR HOUSE!!!

By the way, even though this is not an election ad you should definitely vote for the party that pretends to be the toughest against immigrants, while actually letting record numbers in!

Brought to you by Australian taxpayers money, Canberra.

That's exactly what I thought when I saw the "paid for the australian government canberra" tag line. Its fucking party political advertising, using my money not theirs, right slap in the campaign period. They have no shame. That along with the recent NSW changes to build up the powers of this nascent shadow justice system: no pesky legal checks and balances. More police powers to detain without charge based on profiles, guesswork, probabilities.

 

[Mr. Pointy]

I need to know what kind of silly microparties are running for the senate seats in the NT.

 

[munchie64]

Well this is gonna be fun...

 

[darkace]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/05/05/bludgertrack-50-6-49-4-to-labor-2/

Bludgertrack is giving the ALP a slight 2PP lead, but the LNP retaining their house majority by a single seat.

I'm still putting money on the LNP, but it'll be right down to the wire.

 

[laoni]

I'm going to be in the US for this one, but, I'm gonna try and see if I can vote early via post or if there'll be an early polling booth at the airport or something. I don't wanna give up my vote D:

 

[Rlan]

So for the past 6 months I've since moved from Australia to New Zealand.


Do I still vote in the election at all? How? And for where?

 

[bobnowhere]

So for the past 6 months I've since moved from Australia to New Zealand.


Do I still vote in the election at all? How? And for where?

Probably in the electorate where you last lived? Should be able to vote at the Aussie High Commission in Wellington or the consulate office in Auckland. Doesn't seem to be any more places in NZ.

 

[laoni]

So for the past 6 months I've since moved from Australia to New Zealand.


Do I still vote in the election at all? How? And for where?

http://www.aec.gov.au/Enrolling_to_vote/overseas/index.htm

Looks like you fill in that form, they'll send you a postal vote in a couple of weeks and then you can send it back

 

[Spinifex]

8 weeks is a long time, this is the Liberals election to lose.

Vote Greens btw. Or even if you don't, how about allocating them 2nd preferences.

 

[Elaugaufein]

So for the past 6 months I've since moved from Australia to New Zealand.


Do I still vote in the election at all? How? And for where?

If you still have an Australian address for your permanent residence you vote for there. The embassy should be able to handle how and where.

I'm not sure what the deal is for ex-pats who are citizens but I believe they can vote.

The embassy is definitely the best place to ask for stuff like this.

 

[Elaugaufein]

8 weeks is a long time, this is the Liberals election to lose.

Go Greens.

As much as I support the Greens they are about as likely to win as I am to become President of Australia. I'd be happy if they managed to perform at polled levels for once.

 

[hidys]

If I could I would sign this pledge in my own blood.

http://www.australianunions.org.au/election_pledge

I don't think I could stomach these pricks for another 3 years.

Also can I request that this link to enrol to vote be added to the OP?

http://www.aec.gov.au/enrol/

 

[Elaugaufein]

If I could I would sign this pledge in my own blood.

http://www.australianunions.org.au/election_pledge

I don't think I could stomach these pricks for another 3 years.

I understand the desire to do so but I can never bring myself to do things like that. I'd prefer the Liberals to vast swathes of the right wing micro parties.

 

[Rubixcuba]

8 weeks is a long time, this is the Liberals election to lose.

Vote Greens btw. Or even if you don't, how about allocating them 2nd preferences.

Why throw your vote away?

Spoiler

/s

 

[munchie64]

8 weeks is a long time, this is the Liberals election to lose.

Vote Greens btw. Or even if you don't, how about allocating them 2nd preferences.

You got the right idea.

 

[Ban Puncher]

PALMER 2016

 

[hidys]

8 weeks is a long time, this is the Liberals election to lose.

Vote Greens btw. Or even if you don't, how about allocating them 2nd preferences.

I will definitely give them my second preference.

 

[darkace]

If I could I would sign this pledge in my own blood.

http://www.australianunions.org.au/election_pledge

You can't have high low-skilled workers employment, penalty rates,a high minimum wage, a non-dynamic employment regime and larger than minimal increases in real median wages all at the same time.

The LNP choose the first and last, the ALP chooses the middle three.

 

[danm999]

At this point I expect a LNP win, but they'll lose swathes of marginal seats from 2013, making it harder for Turnbull to herd his cats and maybe even be challenged by someone from the party right.

 

[Dryk]

8 weeks is a long time, this is the Liberals election to lose.

They've been having a good honest go at it though

Vote Greens btw. Or even if you don't, how about allocating them 2nd preferences.

I rarely have any reason not to first preference Greens.

At this point I expect a LNP win, but they'll lose swathes of marginal seats from 2013, making it harder for Turnbull to herd his cats and maybe even be challenged by someone from the party right.

So 2010 Mk II?

 

[viciouskillersquirrel]

Oh yeah. I've been preferencing the Greens first in every election since '07, apart from one state election where I stupidly voted Liberal.

I'd rather not talk about it.

 

[laoni]

https://votecompass.abc.net.au/

The ABC have put up their Vote Compass for this election, in case people wanted to play with it

 

[Brutalitops]

Currently undecided on my vote while maybe leaning super slightly to Liberal, let the campaign begin!

 

[darkace]

That vote compass has put me as socially conservative and economically left.

I'm seriously socially liberal and economically centrist.

This continues my long running battle with all vote compasses. Isidewith still puts me with Sanders, whose central policies I disagree with strongly.

Edit: Seriously I can't for the life of me figure out how it is putting me strongly economically left and socially conservative.

Strongly pro-gay marriage, transgender issues, and euthanasia. Strongly anti-company taxes, slightly pro-lower minimum wage, strongly pro-free trade, strongly pro-foreign investment and ownership, and slightly pro-lower deficit. That's ... socially conservative and economically liberal? In what universe?

Ok Isidewith has put me smack bang in the centre, which is where I think of myself.

I think this quiz just sucks.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

This current coalition government has to be the most inept and dishonest bunch of shit-stains I've seen in my lifetime. I'd like to hear your rationale for voting for them again.

 

[TwiztidElf]

I live in Fairfax. Thank goodness that sack of shit Clive Palmer is GTFO.
He should be in jail.

 

[Aarglefarg]

https://votecompass.abc.net.au/

The ABC have put up their Vote Compass for this election, in case people wanted to play with it

77% GRN
63% ALP
38% LNP

On the rating of the trustworthiness and competency of the leaders, I started thinking about how bad the last 8 months have been for Turnbull. I knew he would be a disappointment for a lot of people, thinking that people would realise he didn't line up ideologically with whatever people projected onto him. But I expected him to be more competent.

 

[Yagharek]

Just remember this thread needs to be locked about 2 weeks before the election and a second one made because the OP doesn't like how its going.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2016/05/05/bludgertrack-50-6-49-4-to-labor-2/

Bludgertrack is giving the ALP a slight 2PP lead, but the LNP retaining their house majority by a single seat.

I'm still putting money on the LNP, but it'll be right down to the wire.

Pollbludger is an aggregation of polls.
It basically gives the following result: LAB 72, LNP 73 OTH 5. There are about 11 LNP seats all under 1% (with 6 under 0.3% or 250 votes).

You can work them out here: http://www.abc.net.au/news/federal-election-2016/guide/calculator/

Of course the big failing with the calculator is that statewide swings in QLD can be all over the shop.

 

[hidys]

You can't have high low-skilled workers employment, penalty rates,a high minimum wage, a non-dynamic employment regime and larger than minimal increases in real median wages all at the same time.

The LNP choose the first and last, the ALP chooses the middle three.

Pretty odd considering that unemployment is higher than when Labor was in office and wages growth has been pretty stagnant.

Also the idea that the Fair Work Act represents a "non-dynamic employment regime" is hilarious.

 

[bobnowhere]

Green - 82%
ALP - 69%
LNP - 37%

Though I'll probably vote like last time, The Bullet Train party in the reps if they are running again, Labor 2nd and in the Senate Greens->Labor.

I want a very fast train!

 

[Antiwhippy]

I seriously doubt Turnbull's public perception will improve from now till the election.

 

[darkace]

Pretty odd considering that unemployment is higher than when Labor was in office and wages growth has been pretty stagnant.

Also the idea that the Fair Work Act represents a "non-dynamic employment regime" is hilarious.

Sorry, I should have put 'over the long-run' as a qualifier. Currently Australia is coming off the mining boom and is being dragged down by the anemic global economy, largely driven by structural issues in Europe and Asia. It's also possible we are seeing secular stagnation, although you'd think it unlikely given the pace of technological growth. The LNP or ALP have next to nothing to do with our current issues in wages or employment.

http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/jun/bu-0615-2a.html

Here's an article by the RBA if you're interested.

Over the long-run, removing structural barriers to employment (high minimum wages, penalty rates) will lower unemployment in the low-skill group. If you price labour out of the market by setting market rates well in advance of the marginal product of their labour then unemployment or a grey labour market is the only possible result. This is what we see with our penalty rates and high minimum wage.

And the ALP did put in structural impediments to employment in their last term. I know this because multiple people I'm close with ran into them.

 

[PhantomZone]

Liiberal to win

I prefer Abbott over Turnbull but there is no way I will ever vote for Labor and Shorten

 

[HowZatOZ]

No Jar Jar Binks? I feel like that should be the role of Palmer.

 

[30yearsofhurt]

Sorry, I should have put 'over the long-run' as a qualifier. Currently Australia is coming off the mining boom and is being dragged down by the anemic global economy, largely driven by structural issues in Europe and Asia. It's also possible we are seeing secular stagnation, although you'd think it unlikely given the pace of technological growth. The LNP or ALP have next to nothing to do with our current issues in wages or employment.

http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/jun/bu-0615-2a.html

Here's an article by the RBA if you're interested.

Over the long-run, removing structural barriers to employment (high minimum wages, penalty rates) will lower unemployment in the low-skill group. If you price labour out of the market by setting market rates well in advance of the marginal product of their labour then unemployment or a grey labour market is the only possible result. This is what we see with our penalty rates and high minimum wage.

And the ALP did put in structural impediments to employment in their last term. I know this because multiple people I'm close with ran into them.

It sounds like you did a semester of economics 101 at university and want to use all these terms you've learnt.

How does a $4/hr wage sound with no workers comp protection?

 

[Falcs]

Don't take my negative gearing, ya cunts!
Vote

Spoiler

anyone but

labour!

 

[Elaugaufein]

Sorry, I should have put 'over the long-run' as a qualifier. Currently Australia is coming off the mining boom and is being dragged down by the anemic global economy, largely driven by structural issues in Europe and Asia. It's also possible we are seeing secular stagnation, although you'd think it unlikely given the pace of technological growth. The LNP or ALP have next to nothing to do with our current issues in wages or employment.

http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2015/jun/bu-0615-2a.html

Here's an article by the RBA if you're interested.

Over the long-run, removing structural barriers to employment (high minimum wages, penalty rates) will lower unemployment in the low-skill group. If you price labour out of the market by setting market rates well in advance of the marginal product of their labour then unemployment or a grey labour market is the only possible result. This is what we see with our penalty rates and high minimum wage.

And the ALP did put in structural impediments to employment in their last term. I know this because multiple people I'm close with ran into them.

I remain extremely skeptical of the net value of employment at below the cost of living to anyone but the business doing the employing being positive.

 

[darkace]

It sounds like you did a semester of economics 101 at university and want to use all these terms you've learnt.

How does a $4/hr wage sound with no workers comp protection?

It sounds like you're ideologically against this but can't back it up with proof so you're lashing out. Lay off the stupid ad hominems.

It sounds good. There's a reason ACOSS is for it. You know, that well known bastion of free market thinking.

I think it was Sweden that implemented a similar program with great success.

I remain extremely skeptical of the net value of employment at below the cost of living to anyone but the business doing the employing being positive.

The thing to understand is that they're either employed at below a livable wage or totally unemployed. Employing them below a livable wage allows them to get skills to barter for a higher wage. There's no reason we can't supplement their income with welfare while also giving them employment to better their skills.